Central Bank Watch
No Surprises in Bernanke’s Jackson Hole Speech
August 26, 2011
In predictable and balanced remarks, the Fed Chairman generally avoided tipping his hand regarding what the FOMC might do in the near term. As expected by yesterday, he did not announce any new measure, nor did he go into detail about specific other steps that could be taken. He’s done that on earlier occasions including […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Spotlight on Bernanke Speech at 14:00 GMT (08:00 Local Time)
August 26, 2011
Investors await Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s breakfast speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Symposium. He’s not expected to announce a major policy initiative. Revised U.S. GDP 2Q data are due at 12:30 GMT, with the consensus being that growth will get revised down from the preliminary estimate of 1.3% to 1.0% or less. The U. […] More
Central Bank Watch
Return of the Chairman
August 25, 2011
Hope has ebbed progressively all week that Federal Chairman will pre-announce a new monetary stimulus in his Jackson Hole speech Friday, just as he did exactly a year ago. Not only did central bank spokesmen say nothing during the week to encourage the high hopes of last Monday, but the press and business talk shows […] More
Deeper Analysis
Footprints of Diversification from Dollar
August 25, 2011
From its highs in 2010 to its lows this year, the U.S. dollar fell over 10% against assorted other widely traded currencies, and it is quoted presently much nearer to the 2011 lows than the 2010 highs. Dollar vs 2010 High 2011 Low % Change 08/25/11 Euro 1.1875 1.4939 -20.5% 1.4408 Yen 94.98 75.93 -20.1% […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Jackson Hole Expectations Dumbed Down
August 25, 2011
The annual Jackson Hole symposium sponsored by the Kansas City Fed begins today, with Bernanke speaking at 14:00 GMT tomorrow. Analysts have scaled back their expectations that he might unveil significant stimulus. The dollar is narrowly mixed, rising 0.4% against the kiwi, 0.2% relative to the yen, and 0.1% versus the Aussie dollar but easing […] More
Central Bank Watch
Thailand Gets Ninth Central Bank Rate Hike
August 24, 2011
The Bank of Thailand raised the one-day bond repurchase rate to 3.5% from 3.25% as most analysts had predicted. From a cyclical low of 1.2% prior to mid-2010, rate increases of the same magnitude were implemented in July, August, and December of 2010 and January, March, April, June, and July of this year. The written […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
German IFO and Moody’s Generate Troubling News
August 24, 2011
Moody’s downgraded Japan’s credit rating to Aa3 from Aa2, citing a big government deficit and rising debt/GDP ratio. The news hurt Asian stocks. The IFO Institute reported a sharp drop and weaker-than-anticipated German business climate in August. The overall index tumbled 4.2 points to 108.7, lowest since mid-2010. The index had been at 114.4 just […] More
Deeper Analysis
January 14, 2000: A Date to Remember
August 23, 2011
January 14, 2000 is a well-suited statistical benchmark for assessing the U.S. economy. If February 3, 1959 was the day the music died as immortalized in Don McLean’s ballad American Pie, calling January 14, 2000 the day the American economy died is only a slight overstatement because the before-and-after performances around that milestone are so […] More
Central Bank Watch
No Further Turkish Monetary Policy Changes for Now
August 23, 2011
At an interim unscheduled meeting on August 4, policy makers at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey sliced their benchmark one-week repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.75% and narrowed the corridor between their overnight lending and borrowing rates by raising the latter 350 bps to 5.0% but not changing the former’s […] More
Central Bank Watch
Pause Continued in Hungarian Monetary Policy
August 23, 2011
Officials at the Magyar Nemzeti Bank left the two-week deposit rate at 6.0% for another month. This decision was widely expected. The interest rate benchmark has been held at that level for the past seven months after three consecutive tightenings of 25 basis points each administered in the final two months of 2010 and January […] More
