Scaled Back Growth Expectations

July 14, 2011

The Federal Reserve is not alone in trimming economic growth projections.   Private analysts have also set their sights lower lately.  The figures in the table below are based on the results of surveys taken in March and July of 18 forecasters conducted and compiled by The Economist.  The changed view of the United States is compared to shifting opinions abouts Europe and Japan.  Over the four months between March and July, both Europe and the United States grappled with the political dimension of fiscal problems.  In Japan, fallout from the Sendai earthquake was the principal preoccupation including how such might complicate stabilizing that country’s massive debt.

The table provides consensus forecasts for growth in 2011 and 2012 revealed in surveys from March and July of this year.  Note that revisions in the view about U.S. growth have been more pronounced than those for Europe, and the substantial downsizing of expected Japanese growth for this year is mitigated in part by a significant upward revision in projected Japanese growth during 2012.


  2011 2012
  March July March July
U.S. 3.3% 2.5% 3.2% 2.9%
Ezone 1.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7%
U.K. 1.6% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0%
Switz. 2.0% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1%
Japan 1.7% -0.6% 2.0% 2.8%

Source: The Economist

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2011.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



Comments are closed.