Data Flow Picks Up

September 28, 2010

Typical of Tuesday and the approach of end-month, more data has been released today than yesterday.  European sovereign debt concerns persist, but the dollar failed to advance on this.  European data were reasonably healthy.

The dollar is 0.3% softer against sterling, down 0.2% against the yen and euro, and off 0.1% versus the Aussie dollar, kiwi, and Swiss franc.  The greenback gained 0.2% against the Canadian dollar and is unchanged against the Chinese yuan.

Stocks fell 1.1% in Japan, 1.0% in Hong Kong, 0.8% in China, 0.5% in Singapore, 0.4% in Malaysia and South Korea, and 0.3% in Thailand and Sri Lanka.  In Europe, the German Dax traded up 0.3%, the British Ftse slipped 0.4%, and the Paris Cac is unchanged so far.

Oil and gold prices each fell by 0.7% to $75.96 per barrel and $1290.00 per ounce.

Amid speculation about more fiscal and monetary stimulus coming to Japan, the ten-year JGB yield fell below unity to 0.97%.  10-year bunds dipped one basis point.

The CBI monthly British retail survey unexpectedly rose 14 points in September to a reading of +49, best since May 2004.

German consumer confidence advanced to a 3-year high of 4.9 in October from an upwardly revised 4.3 in September.

Italian consumer confidence jumped to 107.2 in September from 104.1 in August and far exceeded analyst forecasts.  Italian hourly wages were unchanged on month and up 2.2% on year in August.

Swedish real retail sales were flat on month but 4.4% higher in August than a year earlier.  In June-August, sales surpassed their year-earlier level by 3.2%.

The Swiss consumption indicator, a measure produced by UBS, improved to 1.95 in August from 1.88 in July.

Finland’s central bank revised up projected Finnish GDP growth this year to 2.6%.

British total business investment grew 0.7% last quarter, which was much better than analysts had feared.  The final release of 2Q national income statistics from Britain confirmed GDP growth of 1.2% (4.7% at an annualized rate) and 1.7% from a year earlier.  Investment was revised to +1.4% from minus 2.4%.  Consumption and government spending posted increases of 0.7% and 1.0% from 1Q10.  Exports rose 2.3%, but net exports exerted a marginal drag on GDP because imports went up 2.4%.  Inventories enhanced 2Q growth.  The GDP deflator was 4.0% higher than in 2Q09.

The British current account deficit narrowed to GBP 7.383 billion in the second quarter equal to 2.0% of GDP from GBP 11.298 billion in 1Q.

French real consumer spending on manufactured goods increased 2.7% in July but fell back 1.6% in August.  Such was 1.2% greater than a year earlier versus analyst expectations of a 1.8% on-year increase.

The first four reporting states in Germany announced monthly consumer price declines of 0.3% in Brandenburg, 0.2% in North Rhine Westphalia, and 0.1% in Hesse but a 0.1% uptick in Saxony.  Year-over-year inflation ranged from 1.0% in Brandenburg to 1.5% in Saxony.  Higher energy costs mitigated the impact of lower package holiday costs.  Core inflation is less than 1.0%.

Belgian consumer prices in September rose 0.3% on month and 2.9% on year.  The 12-month inflation pace had not been so high since November 2008.  Icelandic consumer price inflation of 3.7% in the year to September was less than assumed.

The Shoko Chukin index of Japanese small business sentiment, on contrast to the generally better European data announced overnight, fell to 47.3 in September from 48.4 in August and 48.1 in July.  Sub-50 readings indicate a somber mood.

Chinese officials voiced confidence in euro area sovereign debt.  Various ECB officials have made positive comments today as well.

The Filipino trade deficit in July of $173 million was 75.7% smaller than in July 2009, as export growth of 35.9% was more than twice as great as the 16.2% advance in imports.

Scheduled U.S. data releases today feature weekly chain store sales and the monthly Case-Shiller house price index, the Conference Board consumer confidence index and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index.  The Bank of Japan’s Tankan business survey arrives Wednesday.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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