Next Week

July 3, 2009

At least seven central banks hold interest rate policy meetings next week — those in Australia, Britain, South Korea, Colombia, The Philippines, and Chile — but only the final three on that list are considered likely to change policy.  The Bank of Japan holds a quarterly branch managers meeting at which Governor Shirakawa will be speaking.  Leaders of the G-8 hold their annual summit in L’Aquila, Italy from Wednesday to Friday.  The absence of central bankers at these summer summits predisposes them against producing significant currency-market moving decisions.  Evans and Duke of the Fed have speaking engagements, while Paramo and Tumpel-Gugerell of the ECB speak publicly as well.

Data releases next week will be heavily laden with industrial production, external accounts and consumer prices.

  • Countries releasing industrial production figures included Germany, Britain, Italy, The Netherlands, Malaysia, India, Hungary, Norway, Sweden, and Turkey.  South Africa is scheduled to release factory output.
  • Current account and/or trade data are due from Japan, the United States, China, Mexico, Britain, Taiwan, Turkey, Germany, France, Canada, the Czech Republic, and Russia.
  • CPI releases will be made by Sweden, Norway, Holland, Russia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Brazil, Mexico and Germany.

This will be a light week for U.S. data.  On the list are the service-sector PMI from the Institute of Supply Management, consumer credit, wholesale inventories, house prices, and the preliminary U. Michigan monthly survey of consumer sentiment, plus the usual weekly figures on jobless claims, energy stocks, consumer confidence, and chain store sales.

Japan releases money growth, machinery orders, the index of leading economic indicators, the Economy Watchers index, corporate goods prices, and the private consumption index.

Euroland‘s final reading on first-quarter real GDP growth arrives on Wednesday.  German industrial orders, due Tuesday, always attracts interest as a regional bellwether of future activity.

From Britain comes new auto sales, producer prices, the Nationwide gauge of consumer confidence, and the Chamber of Commerce quarterly business survey.  Sweden and Switzerland each announce labor statistics, and Sweden reports industrial orders.  Norway releases PPI as well as CPI figures.

The Canadian and Australian data calendars are headed by monthly labor force surveys.  Canada also releases housing starts and building permits, house prices, and the IVEY-PMI index.  Australia reports consumer confidence, housing finance, and consumer price expectations.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


2 Responses to “Next Week”

  1. Smith_R says:

    Hi Larry,

    I arrived at your blog in odd fashion via my research of Volcker after reading The Sage by Morris. I’m not an economist, nor am I a pundit of any sort on this subject matter. I’m just an ordinary citizen trying to understand the current status of the US economy…and get out of the way!

    In all the entangled verbiage available on this subject I am liking what I’m reading about P. Volcker. As you may know, he joined with James Wolfensohn in the late 80’s to create a boutique investment bank based on long-term client relationships, no underwriting or other market making activities. Unfortunately, it sold to Bankers Trust which has had its share of bad press.

    However, the idea of a boutique investment banks with the foundation described above is interesting to me and why I’m seeking your advice. In an effort to avoid the BofAs and Chase-type investment banks which have all been negatively affected by the mortgage and credit debacle/bubbles – what current banks follow the Volcker/Wolfensohn philosophy?

    Feel free to respond via email as this question is not necessarily germane to the above article. Thank you for the hard work you have put into this blog. It is a terrific resource of information.

  2. larrygreenberg says:

    While I too am a great admirer of the service that Mr Volcker gave to this country in restoring price stability, your specific question deals with an issue on which I do not have a great expertise or strong opinion.