Tankan Survey Shows Less Improvement in Japan's Economy Than Expected
July 1, 2009
| Bm | Bnm | Sm | Snm | All | |
| Dec 1998 | -49 | -39 | -56 | -43 | |
| Dec 1999 | -17 | -19 | -32 | -28 | |
| Dec 2000 | 10 | -10 | -16 | -23 | |
| Dec 2001 | -38 | -22 | -49 | -39 | -40 |
| Dec 2002 | -9 | -16 | -33 | -36 | -28 |
| Dec 2003 | 11 | -9 | -13 | -28 | -15 |
| Dec 2004 | 22 | 11 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| Dec 2005 | 21 | 17 | 7 | -17 | 5 |
| Dec 2006 | 25 | 22 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
| Dec 2007 | 19 | 16 | 2 | -12 | 2 |
| Mar 2008 | 11 | 12 | -6 | -15 | -4 |
| Jun 2008 | 5 | 10 | -10 | -20 | -7 |
| Sep 2008 | -3 | 1 | -17 | -24 | -14 |
| Dec 2008f | -4 | -1 | -25 | -31 | -19 |
| Dec 2008a | -24 | -9 | -29 | -29 | -24 |
| Mar 2009f | -36 | -14 | -48 | -42 | -38 |
| Mar 2009a | -58 | -31 | -57 | -42 | -46 |
| Jun 2009f | -51 | -30 | -63 | -52 | -52 |
| Jun 2009a | -48 | -29 | -57 | -44 | -45 |
| Sep 2009f | -30 | -21 | -53 | -45 | -41 |
Diffusion indices in the above table were derived by subtracting the percent of respondents calling business conditions “unfavorable” from the percent characterizing such as “favorable.” The abbreviations for big manufacturers and big non-manufacturers are Bm and Bnm, while Sm and Snm designate small-sized manufacturers and non-manufacturers. “All” signifies all big, medium, and small firms in the survey. The suffix “a” stands for actual, and “f” signifies a forecast of the actual made three months earlier. Results in June were lower than recent street estimates of around -43 for big manufacturers and-27 for other big firms but better than what survey respondents had predicted three months ago. Further improvement is forecast for September. However, the projected negative 41 reading for all firms at end-summer still represents a very depressed economy.
Big manufacturers are now projecting larger declines in the present fiscal year for sales (14%), profits (39.5%) and capital spending (24.3%) than what they were anticipating when surveyed in March. Diffusion indices for excess product supplies and inventories remain substantial, and the index for
output prices was deeply negative, thus connoting deflation. Japan’s recipe for recovery unfortunately remains overly dependent upon export markets. While Asia has turned around impressively, Europe and North America are much more sluggish. Once inventories are replenished, Japan will need the support of domestic demand as well. Dollar/yen is expected by survey participants to average 94.85 in the year to March 2010.
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Yen
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