June and the Second Quarter in Figures
July 1, 2017
As in the previous quarter, a slide in the price of oil was a key development during the second quarter, and half of this move occurred in June. Gold also lost value both in June and the whole quarter.
A second theme of the period was a shifting view about future monetary policies in the United States and Europe. Despite lower inflation in part due to the drop in oil, Fed officials appeared intent on continuing their gradual removal of monetary stimulus, and both the European Central Bank and Bank of England moved closer to beginning exit strategies from their extremely accommodative stances. A rise in ten-year sovereign debt yields ensued, and the three-year U.S. deposit rate also climbed in June as the fed funds rate was in fact raised.
The dollar weakened except relative to the yen during the quarter. U.S. President Trump exhibited continuing erratic behavior, depressing the confidence of global investors in the direction of U.S. foreign policy and economic performance. Given the new administration’s obsession with eradicating the U.S. trade deficit, investors are not worried that policy action will be taken to support the currency.
April-June was a good quarter for most stock markets. Britain proved to be an exception, as Brexit continues to cast a long shadow on the economic outlook and a snap election there took a disastrously wrong turn. But even more generally, equities in June performed much more shakily than during the earlier months of the quarter.
| 10-Yr Yield | 06/30/17 | Chg v End-May | Chg v End-1Q |
| U.S. | 2.30% | +9 Basis Point | -9 Basis Points |
| Germany | 0.46% | +16 | +1 |
| Japan | 0.07% | +4 | +1 |
| U.K. | 1.25% | +21 | +11 |
| Canada | 1.77% | +36 | +15 |
| Switzerland | -0.07% | +15 | +8 |
| 3-month rates | 06/30/17 | Chg v End-May | Chg v End-1Q |
| U.S. | 1.30% | +10 Basis Points | +15 Basis Points |
| Euroland | -0.37% | 0 | -1 |
| Japan | 0.00% | +2 | -1 |
| U.K. | 0.31% | +1 | -3 |
| Swiss | -0.73% | 0 | 0 |
| FX | 06/30/17 | % Chg in USD | Pct Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.1420 | -1.6% | -6.6% |
| USD/JPY | 112.46 | +1.5% | +1.0% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9586 | -1.0% | -4.3% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3027 | -1.1% | -3.8% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7689 | -3.4% | -0.6% |
| NZD/USD | 0.7325 | -3.4% | -4.2% |
| USD/CAD | 1.2967 | -4.0% | -2.5% |
| USD/CNY | 6.7809 | +0.5% | -1.5% |
| Equities | 06/30/17 | Chg v End-May | Chg v End-1Q |
| S&P 500 | 2423 | +0.5% | +2.5% |
| Nasdaq | 6140 | -1.0% | +3.9% |
| Djia | 21350 | +1.6% | +3.3% |
| Dax | 12325 | -2.6% | +0.1% |
| Nikkei | 20032 | +1.9% | +5.9% |
| Ftse | 7313 | -2.8% | -0.1% |
| Canada TSE | 15182 | -1.1% | -2.6% |
| Swiss SMI | 8907 | -1.2% | +2.9% |
| Commodities | 06/30/17 | Chg v End-May | Chg v End-1Q |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 46.04 | -4.7% | -9.0% |
| Gold, $ per ounce | 1240.70 | -2.5% | -0.5% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2017. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: bonds, foreign exchange, gold, Oil, stocks
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