Next Week

September 20, 2013

In the coming week, Germans elect the national parliament from whom Angela Merkel of the center-right Christian Democrats is likely to secure a third four-year term as Chancellor but governing in a Grand right-left coalition as she did in her first term.  For the past four years, the pro-market Free Democrats were the junior ruling coalition party. 

President Obama is expected to reveal his choice for the next Fed chair-person.  Janet Yellen, an economist by training and the current vice-chair of the Board of Governors, is considered the front-runner, but there are some dark-horse possibilities.

Preliminary September purchasing manager survey results will be published for the euro area, Germany, France and the United States.

White House-Congressional talks to avert a government shutdown or default next month enter a critical stretch.  These things tend to get done only at the last minute.  This time, the chance of stumbling into fiscal abyss looks likelier than previous such crises.

It’s a light week for central bank meetings — just the Bank of Israel and Czech National Bank.  The Reserve Bank of Australia’s annual report is due.  ECB President Draghi gives two speeches, and Lockhart, Dudley, Evans, Fisher, Kocherlakota, George, and Pianalto are some of the Fed officials speaking publicly.

The U.S. data calendar shows the Chicago Fed National Activity index, durable goods orders, the Richmond and K.C. Fed manufacturing indices, revised GDP, the final September U. Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment estimate, personal income and spending, and several housing market indicators such as pending home sales, the Case Shiller house price index, the FHFA house price gauge, and new home sales.  There will be the usual assortment of weekly data such as jobless insurance claims, consumer comfort, chain store sales, energy inventories, and mortgage applications.  Whereas the preliminary PMIs from Euroland will cover both manufacturing and services, the U.S. report is on manufacturing only.

Other euro area releases will involve money and credit growth, business and consumer confidence and the index of leading economic indicators.  Germany’s business climate index, compiled by the IFO Institute, is due.  So are German import prices, consumer confidence, consumer prices and index of leading economic indicators.  France, Portugal and Italy report consumer confidence.  Spain, Italy, and Ireland release retail sales.  Spanish, Greek, and Finnish producer prices are being reported, as are Belgian and Spanish consumer prices, Dutch GDP, Belgian and French business sentiment, and the Greek trade balance.

Britain’s data calendar includes the CBI monthly survey of distributive trends, the public sector borrowing requirement, consumer confidence, and most importantly GDP and the current account. Sweden releases trade figures, money growth, producer prices, retail sales and consumer confidence.  Norwegian, Polish, Hungarian and Danish unemployment numbers get reported.  So do Swiss money growth and index of leading economic indicators.  Czech consumer confidence, Polish retail sales and Hungary’s current account are some of the other eastern European releases.

Turning to Asia, Japan reports corporate service prices and consumer prices, machinery tool orders and supermarket sales, and also small business sentiment.  China has a preliminary PMI survey from HSBC due, plus business sentiment and corporate profits. Singapore releases both consumer and producer prices.  Hong Kong and South Korea report current accounts, while Filipino trade data and both Thai and South Korean industrial output are due as well. 

New Zealand building permits, business sentiment and trade numbers are on tap.  Likewise for Turkish consumer confidence and South African producer prices. 

Canada’s main release will be retail sales.  Brazil reports unemployment and the PPI.  Mexico releases trade numbers and wholesale turnover.

Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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