Stronger Dollar Early Monday

July 15, 2013

The dollar has risen 1.0% against the yen, 0.7% versus the Swissie, 0.6% relative to the kiwi, 0.5% against the euro and sterling, 0.3% versus the loonie and 0.1% against the Australian dollar.  The yuan is steady.

Share prices climbed 1.4% in China following the release of several indicators there.  Equities otherwise haven’t moved much, awaiting the release of U.S. retail sales.

Oil prices slid 0.5% to $105.41 per barrel.  Gold is 0.4% firmer at $1282.40 per ounce.

Ten-year Japanese JGB, German bund, and British gilt yields are unchanged since Friday.

Investors were relieved to learn that Chinese on-year GDP growth only slowed 0.2 percentage points to 7.5% in the second quarter.  Reported Chinese data should be taken with a grain of salt, however.  It is implausible that on-year growth would be as stable as such has been since 1Q12, printing then at 8.1% followed by 7.6% in 2Q12, 7.4% in 3Q, 7.9% in 4Q, 7.7% in 1Q13 and now 7.5% in 2Q.

Chinese industrial production growth slowed to 8.9% in June from 9.2% in May and a 1H13 average on-year pace of 9.3%.

Chinese retail sales picked up in strength, advancing 13.3% in the year to June, most since January and up from 12.9% in May and 12.8% in April.

Chinese fixed asset investment decelerated to 20.1% on year in the first half of 2013 from 20.4% in January-May and 20.7% in full-2012.

The British Rightmove house price index showed an accelerated 12-month advance of 4.8% in July versus 2.7% in June.

Swiss producer and import price inflation flipped from minus 0.2% to plus 0.2%.  The positive on-year result was anticipated and didn’t affect the franc.

Along with retail sales, U.S. business inventories and the Empire State manufacturing index get released today.

Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


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