Next Week

March 19, 2010

Data and event highlights next week are the annual British budget, the do-or-die moment of the U.S. healthcare debate, Euroland’s preliminary Flash readings, U.S. home sales, and the congressional testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke on the policy exit strategy.  It will be short week for Japan, where markets will be closed Monday to observe the vernal equinoxCentral bank meetings in South Africa, the Czech Republic and Colombia are not expect to make rate changes.  A policy meeting in Norway is a closer call because the Norges Bank has already begun to raise rates.  China doesn’t schedule policy changes.  The PBOC just does it when warranted, and nobody should be surprised if a hike in China is announced.

U.S. data in addition to new and existing home sales are the activity indices of the Chicago, KC and Richmond Feds, the FHFA house price index, the second revision of 4Q GDP, durable goods orders, the U. Michigan consumer sentiment gauge and the usual weekly stuff like jobless claims, consumer confidence, energy inventories, chain store sales, and mortgage applications.  Lockhart,Warsh, Bullard, Tarullo and of course Bernanke have speaking engagements.

Japanese releases are limited to customs trade, corporate service prices and, most importantly in light of the nation’s deflation, consumer prices.  The BOJ releases minutes from its February meeting of the Policy Board.  Other notable Asian figures will be South Korean GDP, Hong Kong and Singapore consumer prices, and Taiwanese and Singaporean industrial production.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling delivers the last British budget on Wednesday.  With elections no later than June, this will be more like a Labour Party Manifesto than a blueprint for the coming fiscal year.  Key upcoming U.K. data are retail sales, consumer prices, quarterly capex spending, the CBI monthly survey of retailers, and mortgage loan figures from the British Banking Association. Sweden reports consumer confidence, producer prices and trade data.  Hungarian retail sales arrive.

From Euroland on Wednesday, same day as the U.K. budget, the so-called flash PMI readings (manufacturing, services and composite) for Euroland as a whole, Germany and France arrive.  Other Ezone releases include consumer confidence, industrial orders, and money and credit growth.  Germany announces the IFO business climate index, consumer sentiment, import prices and state consumer prices.  France reports business and consumer confidence, as well as personal spending on manufactured goods.  Belgium and Italy release business sentiment.  Spain and Belgium report consumer prices, while the Netherlands releases final GDP estimates for last quarter. 

Canada’s slate is limited to the index of leading economic indicators, although Bank of Canada Governor Carney has a public speaking engagement that should attract interest.  South Africa will be an active data reporter, with the CPI, PPI, household expenditures, and the current account on tap. New Zealand releases quarterly current account and GDP statistics and monthly trades, while Australian auto sales are also scheduled.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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