Next Week
February 6, 2009
Another week crammed with data releases and central banker speeches lies ahead (five different policymakers each from the Fed and ECB). Interest rate meetings are scheduled in Sweden, South Korea and Chile. The Bank of England releases a quarterly Inflation Report with new forecasts. South Africa’s annual budget will be presented.
Japan will be releasing machinery orders, trade and current account figures, money and credit growth, bankruptcies, consumer confidence, the Economy Watchers Index, and corporate goods prices.
China has scheduled producer and consumer prices, trade figures, loans, and money growth. Some other releases in Asia will be Indonesian GDP, Taiwanese and Malaysian trades, Korean unemployment and money growth, Singaporean retail sales and Indian industrial production.
Euroland has the week’s most meaningful statistics, namely fourth-quarter GDP from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, The Netherlands, Belgium, and the euro area as a whole. The later will reveal a negative growth rate of over 5.0% saar, worse than its counterpart, but both declines will be eclipsed by Japanese national income accounts in the following week where GDP is expected to drop by almost 12% annualized. Back in Europe, German trades, consumer prices and wholesale prices are also scheduled. France announces employment, business sentiment, industrial production, and the current account. Italian and Euroland industrial production data are due, too. So is the euro area Sentix index and the monthly ECB Bulletin.
In addition to the Bank of England inflation report, there are several U.K. data releases including labor market figures (unemployment, average earnings, productivity and unit labor costs), same-store retail sales reported by the British Retail Consortium, the RICs house price balance index, and trades.
Elsewhere in Europe, investors will learn Swiss consumer confidence, producer prices and consumer prices; Denmark’s current account, Swedish industrial orders, production and activity; and consumer price results in Norway and Poland.
The U.S. contingent of figures includes trades, retail sales, business inventories, wholesale turnover, the Federal budget, and consumer confidence, plus weekly jobless claims, energy inventories and chain store sales. Canada reports housing starts, house prices, public finances, trades, and auto sales. Mexico releases trades and consumer prices.
In the down under region, Australian business conditions and confidence are due, as well as data on job ads, consumer confidence, house finance and, most importantly, employment and the jobless rate. New Zealand house prices and retail sales are scheduled releases.
Sweden’s Riksbank, which made rate cuts of 50 basis points on October 8th and 23rd, then 175 bps on December 4th, is expected to revert to a magnitude cut of 50 basis points, bringing its rate down to 1.5%. The
Bank of Korea has reduced its key rate from 5.25% at the start of October to 2.5% at present and seems poised to drop it by another 50 basis points on February 12th. Chile also is likely to ease monetary policy next week.
Copyright 2009 Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. Not secondary distribution without express permission.
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