U.S. GDP
Plenty of Disappointment to Go Around
July 29, 2016
Second quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.2% was only about half as much as forecast, due mainly to a big drag from inventories. Canadian GDP sank 0.6% in May as industrial production there plunged 3.7% on month. The Bank of Japan produced less stimulus than hoped, limiting its action to an increase of EFT buying […] More
Comment on U.S. GDP Growth and Trade Protectionism
June 29, 2016
The second and final revision of U.S. growth between the final quarter of 2015 and the first one of 2016, released yesterday, was revised upward by 0.3 percentage points to 1.1% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (saar). The initial growth estimate reported in late April had been 0.5% saar. Commentary surrounding the report […] More
Investors Shocked by BOJ’s Decision Not to Ease Policy Further
April 28, 2016
The yen climbed 2.6% against both the dollar and euro, the Japanese Nikkei plunged 3.6%, and the 10-year JGB yield fell 3 basis points to -0.09%. The dollar otherwise fell 1.2% against the kiwi and is down 0.3% relative to the loonie, Swissie, yuan, Aussie dollar and sterling. EUR/USD is flat. In other equity news, […] More
First Quarter U.S. GDP Growth
April 20, 2016
The earliest estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of U.S. real GDP last quarter is scheduled to be released a week from tomorrow on April 28. Other released data point to very weak growth, with a reasonable probability of a figure below 0.5% at a seasonal adjusted annualized rate (saar) and a chance even […] More
Japanese Central Bank Drops a Bombshell of a Surprise
January 29, 2016
The Bank of Japan adopted a negative interest rate after repeated officials comments from central bank officials earlier that they weren’t contemplating such. In response, Japanese share prices advanced 2.8% and the yen has fallen 2.2% against the dollar and 0.9% relative to the euro. The 10-year Japanese JGB yield declined 12 basis point to […] More
Dollar and European Equities Firm after Yellen Clarification
September 25, 2015
Fed Chair Yellen in a speech at the University of Massachusetts repeated that an interest rate hike by yearend is likely and indicated that she personally favored starting gradual rate normalization by then. Investors seem pleased with that clarification and reduction of policy uncertainty. Japanese core consumer prices fell 0.1% on year in August, returning […] More
Dollar and European Equities Firm after Yellen Clarification
September 25, 2015
Fed Chair Yellen in a speech at the University of Massachusetts repeated that an interest rate hike by yearend is likely and indicated that she personally favored starting gradual rate normalization by then. Investors seem pleased with that clarification and reduction of policy uncertainty. Japanese core consumer prices fell 0.1% on year in August, returning […] More
Better Financial Market Tone Continues
August 27, 2015
The Kansas City Fed’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, WY begins today. The topic of this year’s central banker conference is “Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy.” While Chairperson Yellen will not be attending, Vice Chair Stanley Fisher’s speech on Saturday, the final day of the gathering, is the most eagerly awaited event. Remarks […] More
Comment on U.S. GDP
July 30, 2015
The U.S. economy rebounded in the spring from a weather depressed first quarter. At 2.3%, the annualized growth of real GDP was very close to market expectations, four times faster than the first-quarter pace, but hardly better than what’s come to be the economy’s average performance. The six-year-long post-Great Recession upswing has produced an average […] More
IFO Monthly Report and a Setback in the Greek Talks
June 24, 2015
Yesterday’s proposal by Greek Prime Minister Tsipras was not accepted by all the Europeans. News of this setback sent share prices down 3.8% in Greece and 0.9% in Germany, Spain and Italy. Stocks fell also by 0.5% in France and Switzerland and by 0.1% in Great Britain. The Greek fixed asset yield spread above Germany […] More
