FOMC statement and forecasts

FOMC Statement and Projections

June 16, 2021

The FOMC statement is almost identical to the previous one in late April, except that it acknowledges vaccination progress reducing the drag of Covid on the economy. However, the thought that some Covid risks continue was not dropped. The most newsworthy part of the updated projections involves end-year forecasts for the appropriate federal funds target. […] More

FOMC Statement and Updated Forecasts

September 16, 2020

I had two quick takeaways from today’s FOMC statement. First, Under the modified FOMC framework for treating its twin policy mandates, forward guidance is expressed in an enlarged paragraph: The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longerrun […] More

FOMC Statement and Projections

June 19, 2019

Today’s FOMC Statement downgraded the pace of economic activity to moderate but left the labor market assessment at strong. Personal consumption “appears to have picked up,” but business investment is still “soft.” As expected, forward guidance was modified, acknowledging increased uncertainties and replacing a stress on being patient with a promise to “act as appropriate […] More

FOMC Statement and Forecasts

June 13, 2018

Today’s FOMC statement raises the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target of 1.75-2.0%, depicts a tighter labor market, upgrades the assessment of personal consumption recent conditions, and deletes the prior observation that market-based measures of inflation are low. The statement also introduces the assertion that inflation consistent with the Committee’s symmetric […] More

FOMC Statement and Forecasts

December 13, 2017

The FOMC met market expectations in raising the federal funds rate by an as-expected 25 basis points to 1.25-1.50%. But the vote was 7-2, with Chicago Fed President Evans joining Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari in favoring no change in the rate. A fairly upbeat statement observes that unemployment (now 4.1%) has declined further and that […] More

FOMC Statement and Forecasts

September 21, 2016

The statement elevates the risk of a coming rate hike in two ways but left the federal funds rate target at a range of 0.25 – 0.50%. A new sentence was inserted that the “Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, […] More