Currency Markets in the News
Japanese GDP Advanced 3.7% At Annualized Rate Last Quarter
August 17, 2009
The preliminary second-quarter GDP data were much as forecast. Japanese real GDP expanded 3.7% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (saar) in 2Q09. That was better than negative growth rates in the quarter of 0.4% saar in Euroland, 1.0% saar in the United States, and 3.2% in Great Britain. However, the 6.4% GDP drop from […] More
Bank of Japan Left Policy Stance Unchanged As Expected
August 11, 2009
After meeting for five hours over two days, the Policy Board retained a 0.1% rate target on overnight money, announced no other policy actions, and released a statement that introduced nothing new in the BOJ’s economic assessment. CPI inflation will remain negative but is projected to become less deflationary during the second half of the […] More
Preview of Bank of Japan Policy Board Meeting
August 10, 2009
Since its own banking system problems emerged in the early 1990’s, Japanese monetary policy never returned to normal. The overnight interest rate has not exceeded 0.5% for the past 14 years. Another unanimous BOJ vote to leave policy settings unchanged is expected overwhelmingly. The overnight rate target was cut twice in the fourth quarter of […] More
Expected Real GDP Growth in Major Advanced Economies
August 10, 2009
The results of a new monthly survey of 13 esteemed forecasting institutions were published in the latest issue of The Economist, and the United States enjoys a commanding edge over most other G-7 economies despite being the economy that triggered the financial crisis and global recession. Participants in the survey project an average positive growth […] More
ECB Policy Held Steady
August 6, 2009
No significant surprises emerged from the ECB statement and press conference. Key interest rates (a 1.0% refinancing rates sandwiched between a 0.25% deposit rate and a 1.75% marginal lending rate) were retained as expected. A EUR 60 billion program of covered bond purchases was not changed, either, and growth and price developments have not surprised […] More
ECB Preview
August 5, 2009
At Thursday’s press conference, I expect ECB President Trichet on behalf of that bank’s governing council to Make no changes in the key interest rate structure of 1.0% refinancing rate, 0.25% deposit rate, and 1.75% marginal lending rate. Call the present policy stance “appropriate.” Announce no expansion of the covered bond purchase plan. Say that […] More
U.S./Euroland Gap in Service Sector Activity Narrow Again
August 5, 2009
PMIs U.S. Ezone U.S. Ezone Sum of Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads Feb 2008 49.7 52.3 -2.6 48.8 52.3 -3.5 -6.1 March 49.9 51.6 -1.7 49.0 52.0 -3.0 -4.7 April 51.9 52.0 -0.1 48.6 50.7 -2.1 -2.2 May 51.2 50.6 +0.6 49.3 50.6 -1.3 -0.7 June 48.8 49.1 -0.3 49.5 […] More
Inflation and Monetary Policy
August 4, 2009
This coming Sunday will mark two years since the global financial crisis began. One educational benefit of this trauma has been to clarify what it means for central bankers to promote price stability. For certain central banks, such is the only macroeconomic objective of monetary policy, although even in those single-purpose frameworks, price stability can […] More
U.S Advantage Versus Euro Area in Manufacturing Widened Last Month
August 3, 2009
Factory sector downtrends continued to decelerate in the United States and Euroland in July, according to purchasing manager surveys released today. Production and orders expanded slightly in the United States and eased only marginally in Euroland. Labor market trends lagged in both regions as one might imagine, exerting a drag on each overall PMI index. […] More
July in Figures
August 1, 2009
A frequent risk assumption trade in July boosted equities, depressed the dollar, and produced mixed interest rate movements. Oil prices had fallen around $10 by the 14th but recovered just about all its losses by month-end. Gold recouped half its June decline. 10-Yr Yield 06/30/09 07/31/09 Chg vs End-June U.S. 3.53% 3.48% -5 Basis Points […] More
