Japanese GDP Advanced 3.7% At Annualized Rate Last Quarter

August 17, 2009

The preliminary second-quarter GDP data were much as forecast.

Japanese real GDP expanded 3.7% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (saar) in 2Q09.  That was better than negative growth rates in the quarter of 0.4% saar in Euroland, 1.0% saar in the United States, and 3.2% in Great Britain.  However, the 6.4% GDP drop from the second quarter of 2008 compared unfavorably with on-year declines of 5.6% in Britain, 4.6% in Euroland and 3.9% in the United States.  GDP contractions were revised downward by 2.5 percentage points (ppts) in 1Q09 and 0.5 ppts in 4Q08 but upward by 1.0 ppts in 3Q08 and 2.1 ppts in 2Q08.

Net exports enhanced second quarter growth by 6.5 ppts in the second quarter after depressing growth by 3.3 ppts in 1Q09.  The second quarter saw public investment soar 36.3% saar but private investment fall 16.1% saar.  Personal consumption expanded 3.1% saar after annualized drops of 4.6% in 1Q09 and 2.9% in 4Q08.  Exports rebounded 18.9% saar, whereas imports slumped by another 18.9% saar.  In the year between the second quarters of 2008 and 2009, personal consumption fell 0.9%, residential investment fell 10.1%, and non-residential investment plunged 22.8%.  Exports sank 29.3%, but public investment jumped 16.8%.  The GDP price deflator posted a third consecutive on-year increase, albeit by just 0.5%.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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