Trump Speaks and Markets Follow
March 10, 2026
In these weeks of incredible geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. President Trump’s verbal sound track has emerged as the the dominant short-term determinant of financial market movements. One can only imagine the massive personal wealth that could be amassed from such powerful influence.
With fierce Middle East bombing broadening and all signs from Iran suggesting no intention on their part to end the conflict with Israel and the United States, President Trump engineered an abrupt turnaround in financial markets merely by saying that military accomplishments are ahead of schedule and that an end to Operation Epic Fury is apt to happen soon. In response,
- The price of WTI oil, which touched a high yesterday of $119.48 per barrel, is 24% cheaper now at $90.33.
- Gold and silver price strength has resumed with overnight gains of 1.5% and 4.8%, respectively.
- Bitcoin’s price has recouped roughly 3% so far today.
- Stock markets in the Pac Rim surged 5.4% in South Korea, 2.9% in Japan, 2.2% in Hong Kong and Singapore, 2.1% in Taiwan, 1.6% in Malaysia, 1.4% in Indonesia and 1.1% in Australia. In China, where a bigger-than-anticipated trade surplus was reported, the Shanghai Composite closed up 0.7%, and India’s Sensex advanced by 0.8% this Tuesday.
- Major European stock markets are up 1.3% in the U.K. and France and 1.8%-2.2% in Germany, Italy and Spain.
- The dollar’s uptrend since the war began has stalled, with overnight declines of 0.2% against the yen and loonie and 0.5% relative to the Aussie dollar and a 0.4% slide of the weighted DXY dollar index.
- Ten-year sovereign debt yields settled back four basis points in the U.K., three bps in Italy, two bps in France, Switzerland and Spain, and a basis point in Japan.
In the United States, by contrast, U.S. stock futures are flashing red, and the ten-year Treasury yield is three basis points higher.
A lot of economic data were reported around the world today, mostly of a second-tier nature but including also an upward revision to Japanese economic growth last quarter.
The revised Japanese GDP figures reveal a 0.3% quarterly rise (equivalent to 1.3% when expressed at an annualized rate), and that change is now associated with year-on-year growth of 1.0% in the quarter and 1.2% for 2025 as a whole. Fourth quarter over third quarter GDP growth received positive contributions from personal consumption, investment, and public expenditures totaling 2.6 percentage points when annualized but then mitigated in half by the drag of inventories. Quarterly declines in exports and imports offset one another. GDP growth in 2025 got its largest impulse from personal consumption, followed by non-residential investment, but net foreign demand and residential investment made negative contributions. Japan’s GDP price deflators measured inflation at 3.4% both in the fourth quarter and 2025 as a whole.
Among other Japanese data released today, weaker-than-anticipated household spending dropped 2.5% on month and 1.0% on year in January. Average cash earnings growth accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year, equivalent to a wage rise of 1.4% in inflation-adjusted terms, which was the first above-zero reading since 2024. Thirdly, machine tool orders posted a year-on-year increase of 24.8% in January-February, up from 8.0% in full-2025.
Despite tariff and geopolitical strains, China’s trade surplus in the first two months of 2026 of $213.6 billion exceeded expectations and a surplus of $169 billion in the first two months of 2025. Likewise, the surplus of 1.189 trillion in 2025 was 20% greater than in 2024. Exports, which rise just 5.5% in 2025, were 21.8% greater in January-February than a year earlier.
Tariffs and military conflicts continue to depress the mood of U.S. small business owners. The NFIB-compiled small business sentiment index fell to a 4-month low in February of 98.8, which was also 6.0% below the 105.1 reading in December 2024, when hopes were high because of Trump’s reelection and his promise to implement sweeping deregulation. Separately, U.S. existing home sales plunged 8.4% in January to their lowest level in 16 months.
Germany’s EUR 21.2 billion seasonally adjusted trade surplus in January was at a 17-month high and above the EUR 16.5 billion monthly average in the second half of 2025. The French current account surplus in January of EUR 2.1 billion contrasted with a EUR 1.8 billion deficit in January 2025 and a EUR 12.5 billion deficit in all of last year.
Year-on-year growth in British same store sales of only 0.7% last month was the lowest in nine months.
South Korean GDP contracted 0.2% last quarter according to a less steep revised estimate and was 1.6% greater than a year earlier.
South African GDP grew just 0.4% in 4Q 2025, a 3-quarter low, and by 0.8% compared to the final quarter of 2024. In the face of tepid economic activity, the country’s jobless rate remains above 30%.
Among reported price data today, Italian producer prices this month were 1.6% lower than a year earlier; Kazakhstani PPI inflation accelerated to a 3-month high of 6.4% in February; Egyptian consumer price inflation of 13.4% in February was the most in 7 months; Hungarian CPI inflation slowed 0.7 percentage points to a 111-month low in February of 1.4%; Czech CPI inflation of 1.4% in February has dropped from 2.9% in mid-2025 and 18.0% in September 2020; Latvian inflation, which crested in September 2022 at 22.2%, was down to a 15-month low of 2.3% last month; Norwegian CPI inflation of 2.7% last month was at a 10-month low; Danish inflation edged 0.1 percentage point below January’s reading to a 22-month low last month; Greece record a 6-month high CPI inflation rate of 2.7% last month; and Dutch inflation matched January’s 25-month low of 2.4%.
Turkish industrial production in January fell 2.8% on month and 1.8% on year. Malaysia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, and Bulgaria were among the other economies to report industrial production data this Tuesday.
Business confidence compiled by National Australia Bank fell five index points to a 10-month low of -1 in February, and the accompanying index of business conditions matched January’s level of +4.
Ireland’s construction PMI in February was at a 9-month high of 52.1 and the first reading to exceed the 50 neutral level in that span.
Copyright 2026, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: Chinese trade balance, German trade and French current account, Japanese GDP, South Korean and South African GDP
ShareThis
