Investors Marking Time Ahead of Several U.S. Data Releases Today Including the First Estimate of GDP Last Quarter
January 26, 2023
In U.S. stock market futures trading overnight, the S&P 500 and DOW are hardly changed, while better-than-expected reported Tesla profits goosed the Nasdaq. Hong Kong’s stock market reopened with a 2.4% advance, but China remains shut until next week. Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.1%. In Europe, the Dax is off less than 0.1%. The British Ftse firmed 0.1%, and the French, Spanish and Italian stock exchanges have risen a bit more than 0.5%.
The dollar is up 0.2% against the euro, yen and on a weighted basis. There’s been no net change versus the beleaguered pound sterling and 0.1% dips relative to the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and Swiss franc.
Ten-year sovereign debt yields are up by six basis points in the U.K., five bps in Italy, four bps in the United States, France and Spain and three bps in Japan.
A summary of this month’s Bank of Japan Board meeting published today includes this telling comment about the importance of wages: “Since it will take time for wages to see a sustained increase, there needs to be support from macroeconomic policy.” Officials observed that appropriate financial market functionality hasn’t yet been restored.
The prices of Bitcoin and WTI oil are 0.2% and 1.0% higher so far today, while that of gold has settled 0.5% lower.
Japanese corporate service price inflation, which crested last June at 2.1%, slowed further in December to a 9-month low of 1.5%. Such averaged 1.7% for 2022 after 0.9% in both 2020 and 2021.
South African producer price inflation decelerated to an 8-month low in December of 13.5% from 15.0% in November and a record high of 18.0% last July. At the end of 2021, such printed at 10.8%.
South Korean real GDP contracted 0.4% in 4Q 2022, ending a nine-quarter streak of positive economic growth. The year-on-year growth rate was halved to 1.4%, its smallest such gain in two years. South Korean consumer sentiment rose to a 4-month high of 90.7 in January, still much closer to November’s low of 86.5 than the 103.8 reading last April.
Swedish consumer confidence likewise rebounded to a 2-month high but, at 56.3, remains much lower than the 92.3 reading seen last February just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sweden’s trade deficit of SEK 44.7 billion in 2022 was more than twice the size of the prior year’s deficit of 20 billion kroner.
The British monthly distributive trades index dived to a 9-month low in January of -23 following December’s score of +11.
Spain’s unemployment rate of 12.9% last quarter was the highest in three quarters but well below 16.3% in the third quarter of 2020.
Italian consumer confidence relapsed to a 2-month low this month from December’s 11-month high. Business sentiment in manufacturing improved to a 5-month high.
U.S. releases today besides the aforementioned GDP will include weekly jobless insurance claims, the merchandise trade deficit, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and durable goods orders. Central banks in South Africa and Chile are holding policy reviews.
Copyright 2023, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: British distributive trades index, Italian consumer confidence and factory sector sentiment, Japanese corporate service prices
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