Reflections on First Day of MLB Playoffs
October 8, 2022
The changing face of baseball was on full display during the first day of the wild card round.
Hits were scarce and runs even more so. Eight teams managed a total of 50 hits or just over six per game. The four losing teams — the Tampa Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals and N.Y. Mets — collectively scored only five runs.
Much of the scoring on the day came via the home run. That includes all eight of the runs in the San Diego Padres 7-1 victory over the Mets and the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 win over Tampa. In a 4-0 shutout by the Seattle Mariners over Toronto, the first two runs scored on a home run, and the Cardinals took a 2-0 lead via a walk followed by a homer in the seventh all the way through 8-1/3rds inning before suffering a stunning meltdown. More about that later.
Complete games thrown by pitchers have become an exceptional rarity, even when starters pitch superbly as did six of the eight in yesterday’s four games. Relievers finished each of those games, however. The most extreme example involved Jose Quintana, the Cardinals’ starter, who allowed only two hits and a walk but was replaced after striking out his first batter in the sixth inning. That left eleven outs to be secured by a succession of relief pitchers.
Baseball managers routinely rely on relief pitchers for the back end of games even in cases when starters have been extremely effective. That’s the way the game, driven by analytical evidence, is now played. While the strategy is backed up by the data, it incentivizes managers not to begin the parade of relievers in the very early innings. Max Scherzer of the Mets had given up two home runs and three runs in the first two innings and clearly did not have his usual command of pitches. However, he was not removed from an essential do-or-die game until the fifth inning after he had allowed two more homers and four runs that broke the game open.
Over the course of a regular season, enough data collects to be able to rank both starting pitchers and relievers by effectiveness. But professional athletes, like people in all walks of life, have good and bad days. Around one’s average performance, a great variance can be found from observation to observation. One’s reputation based on past history has to be modified by the latest information in evaluating present circumstances. The problem with a strategic approach that hard-wires the use of a successive stream of relievers even when the starter is performing very well is the substitution of an initial pitcher who clearly is pitching well with a succession of additional pitchers, who probably but not certainly enter the game on one of their good days. All it takes is one weak link in the chain to spoil the efforts of every other player. The more relievers used, the greater is the possibility that one of the relievers will be ineffective, even if it involves a player who’s been reliable most of the time.
And that’s exactly what happened in the Cardinals-Phillies game. Recall that Quintana of the Cards was relieved with 11 more outs needed to finish the game. Hicks followed Quintana and completed the sixth inning without allowing a hit. Gallegos pitched the whole seventh inning, allowing no hits, and got out number one in the eighth before giving up a walk. A third reliever, Helsley, was then brought into the game. Helsley was the the most efficient Cardinal reliever all year, permitting just 1.25 runs every nine innings and a combination of 48 hits and walks in nearly 65 innings pitched. He was the fourth pitcher after three that had done their jobs to perfection. Helsley negotiated the two remaining outs in the eighth inning without problem, but being in the accustomed role to close out Cardinal victories was asked to get the final three outs in the ninth. After striking out his first batter, the wheels came off the bus. A single was followed by two walks and a hit batter to load the bases and allow a run. The Cards brought in their fifth pitcher of the game, Andre Pallante. Two singles flanking a misplayed fielder’s choice ensued. All of a sudden, the Cards trailed 6-2 instead of leading 2-0.
Over recent years, injuries became increasingly prevalent in major league baseball and seem to have been involved in both pitching meltdowns yesterday. Max Scherzer had missed considerable time during the Mets season due to an oblique muscle strain that may have reared up again. Scherzer had not been effective in a loss to the Braves late in the season and again didn’t have his usual command over his pitches against the Padres yesterday. Likewise, a middle finger injury seems to have diminished Ryan Helsley’s effectiveness against the Phillies. Now the Mets and Cardinals have their backs to the wall and must win today’s games to remain in the post-season hunt for a World Series championship.
In one respect, day one of the wild card games did not follow predictability. Baseball teams, especially the good ones, generally rack up better won-loss records in their home parks than playing on the road. However, only the Cleveland Guardians won at home yesterday. The other three games were won by visiting teams, leaving a lot of fans disappointed. More than in other major sports, baseball results are volatile from game to game. Even very good teams can be expected to lose 60 games in a regular season, and very bad ones generally win as many as 60. It takes a lot of observations to evaluate the relative strength of teams. Post-season tournaments of the best teams are meant to crown the real best of the best, but that happens less assuredly in baseball than other sports. Other conventional norms like home field advantage are similarly distorted in a short series.
Copyright 2022, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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