Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: October 30 – November 5, 2021
October 29, 2021
Central Banks: Monetary policies to be reviewed at the Federal Reserve and in Australia, the U.K., Norway, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Malaysia. Press conferences by Bank of England Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell. Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement will be published by Reserve Bank of Australia. Events and Holidays: Lower house election in Japan […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Sobering Data
October 29, 2021
A round of risk aversion depressed equities but lifted the dollar and 10-year bond yields on Friday. The price of gold dipped below $1,800 per ounce. Ten-year German bund and British gilt yields rose five basis points overnight, and the 10-year Treasury yield is 3 bp higher. Share prices fell 1.3% in South Korea, 1.4% […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Japan Policy Unchanged
October 28, 2021
The Bank of Japan retained targets of -0.1% on its short-term policy interest rate and “around zero percent” for the 10-year JGB bond yield, according to today’s statement. In the 8-1 decision, Kataoka again favored a more expansionary stance. Today’s meeting coincided with publication of the quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices in which […] More
Central Bank Watch
European Central Bank: No Policy Changes Now But Maybe in December
October 28, 2021
The ECB kept its interest rate structure (a zero percent refinancing rate flanked by a -0.5% deposit rate and a 0.25% marginal lending facility rate) and didn’t change the quantitative elements of monetary stimulus, either. The Governing Council concedes that inflation will likely take longer to retreat into its target but expressed continuing confidence that […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.S. GDP, Monetary Policy Statements from ECB & Japan, and So Much More
October 28, 2021
Financial market activity overnight: The dollar and 10-year sovereign debt yields are little changed on this busy Thursday. Equities fell in Asia including losses of 1.2% in China, 1.0% in Japan, 1.2% in Indonesia, and 1.9% thus far in India. European share prices have risen a bit, however, and U.S. futures are also in the […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Canada Ends Bond Purchase Stimulus and Signals Slightly Earlier Interest Rate Lift-Off Timing
October 27, 2021
Canada’s policy interest rate has been at 0.25% since a trio of 50-basis point reductions in March 2020. While significant progress has been achieved toward economic and labor market recovery, that task has not yet been sufficiently completed. Various areas of the labor market are not yet all the way back to pre-pandemic conditions. Canada’s […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Marking Time and Some Profit-Taking in Stocks
October 27, 2021
Wednesday has seen the release of more price data and several measures of economic confidence. Attention is poised to turn to central bank monetary policies. Up first today will be the Bank of Canada followed later in the week by statements from monetary authorities in Euroland, Japan, and Brazil. Stocks in several places touched record […] More
Larry's Blog
Reflections on the 2021 MLB Baseball Playoffs
October 26, 2021
Unlike the other three major professional sports played in the United States, baseball as it was traditionally played changes the most influential position in each successive game. That would be the starting pitcher, who throws more innings than do relievers. In recent world series match-ups excluding the pandemic-abbreviated season of 2020, the 2019 series included […] More
Deeper Analysis
Tuesday Rundown of U.S. Data Results
October 26, 2021
U.S. house price inflation remain high in August but not quite so torrid as in July. Compared to the prior month, the HPI rose 1.2% according to the Case-Shiller index of 20 metropolitan areas and 1.0% according the the FHFA index. The 12-month increase from the Case-Shiller survey was a 2-month low of 19.7%, down […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Equities Still Climbing as Evidence Piles Up of Inflationary Pressure
October 26, 2021
As U.S. congressional democrats continue haggling and scaling back President Biden’s fiscal proposals, equities extended their gains overnight. Share prices are up 1.0% in Germany and Spain, 0.7% in the U.K., 0.6% in France and 0.5% in Italy. U.S. futures show moderate gains as well, and the Japanese Nikkei more than reversed Monday’s loss with […] More
