Negative U.S.-Minus-Ezone Manufacturing PMI Spread Widened for Second Straight Month in July

August 2, 2021

The ISM-compiled U.S. purchasing managers survey for manufacturing dropped 1.1 points last month. Declines of 6.4 point in the price component, 2.2 points in production and 1.1 points in orders outweighed a 2.0-point increase in the employment sub-index. The IHS-compiled U.S. PMI rose slightly, in contrast, from 62.1 in June to 63.4 last month. Consequently, the spread between the ISM index for the United States and the IHS index for Euroland upon which the table below is based shows the spread between the two measures moving more strongly in Euroland’s favor as happened as well in June. At -3.3, that differential favors Euroland to its greatest extent since November 2015. The dollar’s monthly average value against the euro was 3.1% more pricey in July than May. Many manufactured goods get exports, so it makes intuitive sense to see manufacturing conditions improveĀ  in Euroland relative to those in the United States at a time when the euro is cheapening.

Mfg PMIs U.S. Euroland Spread EUR/USD
Jan 2013 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.330
February 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.334
March 51.5 46.8 +4.7 1.295
April 50.0 46.7 +3.3 1.301
May 50.0 48.3 +1.7 1.299
June 52.5 48.8 +3.7 1.319
July 54.9 50.3 +4.6 1.309
August 56.3 51.4 +4.9 1.331
September 56.0 51.1 +4.9 1.335
October 56.6 51.3 +5.3 1.364
November 57.0 51.6 +5.4 1.349
December 56.5 52.7 +3.8 1.370
Jan 2014 51.3 54.0 -2.7 1.361
February 54.3 53.2 +1.1 1.366
March 54.4 53.0 +1.4 1.380
April 55.3 53.4 +1.9 1.380
May 55.6 52.2 +3.4 1.374
June 55.7 51.8 +3.9 1.360
July 56.4 51.8 +4.6 1.354
August 58.1 50.7 +7.4 1.332
September 56.1 50.3 +5.8 1.290
October 57.9 50.6 +7.3 1.268
November 57.6 50.1 +7.5 1.247
December 55.1 50.6 +4.5 1.232
Jan 2015 53.5 51.0 +2.5 1.162
February 53.3 51.0 +2.3 1.135
March 52.3 52.2 +0.1 1.083
April 51.6 52.0 -0.4 1.081
May 53.1 52.2 +0.9 1.116
June 53.1 52.5 +0.6 1.123
July 51.9 52.4 -0.5 1.101
August

September

October

51.0

50.0

49.4

52.3

52.0

52.3

-1.3

-2.0

-2.9

1.114

1.123

1.121

November

December

Jan 2016

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Jan 2017

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Jan 2018

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Jan 2019

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Jan 2020

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Jan 2021

February

March

April

May

June

July

48.4

48.0

48.2

49.7

51.7

50.7

51.0

52.8

52.8

49.4

51.7

52.0

53.5

54.5

56.0

57.6

56.8

55.3

55.5

56.7

56.5

59.3

60.2

58.5

58.2

59.3

59.1

60.7

59.3

57.9

58.7

60.0

58.4

60.8

59.5

57.5

58.8

54.3

56.6

54.2

55.3

52.8

52.1

51.7

51.2

49.1

47.8

48.3

48.1

47.4

50.9

50.1

49.1

41.5

43.1

52.6

54.2

56.0

55.4

59.3

57.5

60.5

58.7

60.8

64.7

60.7

61.2

60.6

59.6

 

52.8

53.2

52.3

51.2

51.6

51.7

51.5

52.8

52.0

51.7

52.6

53.5

53.7

54.9

55.2

55.4

56.2

56.7

57.0

57.4

56.6

57.4

58.1

58.5

60.1

60.6

59.6

58.6

56.6

56.2

55.5

54.9

55.1

54.6

53.2

52.0

51.8

51.4

50.5

49.3

47.5

47.9

47.7

47.6

46.5

47.0

45.7

45.9

46.9

46.3

47.9

49.2

44.5

33.4

39.4

47.4

51.8

51.7

53.7

54.8

53.8

55.2

54.8

57.9

62.5

62.9

63.1

63.4

62.8

 

 

-4.4

-4.8

-4.1

-1.5

+0.1

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

+0.8

-2.3

-0.9

-1.5

-0.2

-0.4

+0.8

+2.2

+0.6

-1.4

-1.5

-0.7

-0.1

+1.9

+2.1

0.0

-1.9

-1.3

-0.5

+2.1

+2.7

+1.7

+3.2

+5.1

+3.3

+6.2

+6.3

+5.5

+7.0

+2.9

+6.1

+4.9

+7.8

+4.9

+4.4

+4.1

+4.7

+2.1

+2.1

+2.4

+1.2

+1.1

+3.0

+0.9

+4.6

+8.1

+3.7

+5.2

+2.4

+4.3

+1.7

+4.5

+3.7

+5.3

+3.9

+2.9

+2.2

-2.2

-1.9

-2.8

-3.3

1.076

1.090

1.087

1.111

1.114

1.134

1.130

1.124

1.106

1.120

1.121

1.103

1.078

1.054

1.063

1.064

1.069

1.072

1.106

1.124

1.153

1.182

1.191

1.176

1.174

1.184

1.220

1.234

1.234

1.227

1.181

1.167

1.169

1.155

1.166

1.148

1.136

1.138

1.142

1.135

1.130

1.123

1.118

1.130

1.121

1.112

1.101

1.106

1.105

1.111

1.110

1.091

1.105

1.087

1.091

1.126

1.147

1.177

1.178

1.177

1.184

1.217

1.217

1.210

1.190

1.199

1.219

1.205

1.182


Copyright 2021, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.

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