U.S. and Euro Area Manufacturing Conditions Improved Last Month
August 3, 2020
The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index of the Institute for Supply Management rose 1.6 points to a 16-month high of 54.2 in July. That performance was exceeded nonetheless by the IHS-compiled PMI for Euroland, which jumped 4.4 points to 51.8. Being each above 50, the data signify a faster U.S. improvement in business conditions during July than that in June and a shift from moderately paced deterioration in Euroland during June to moderate improvement during July. Moreover, the spread between the two indices was roughly cut in half last month, and manufacturing in the two economies showed the greatest convergence in five months.
Because much manufactured goods go into exports, a strengthening euro ordinarily correlates with a comparatively larger U.S. competitive advantage, it is somewhat counter-intuitive that the two sectors converged last month. In July, however, business was dominated by Covid-19 developments, not economic trends, and Europe has done a considerably better job containing the pandemic than has the United States.
| Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| Jan 2013 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.330 |
| February | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.334 |
| March | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | 1.295 |
| April | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | 1.301 |
| May | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | 1.299 |
| June | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | 1.319 |
| July | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | 1.309 |
| August | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | 1.331 |
| September | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | 1.335 |
| October | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | 1.364 |
| November | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | 1.349 |
| December | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | 1.370 |
| Jan 2014 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | 1.361 |
| February | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | 1.366 |
| March | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | 1.380 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | 1.380 |
| May | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | 1.374 |
| June | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | 1.360 |
| July | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | 1.354 |
| August | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | 1.332 |
| September | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | 1.290 |
| October | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | 1.268 |
| November | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | 1.247 |
| December | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | 1.232 |
| Jan 2015 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | 1.162 |
| February | 53.3 | 51.0 | +2.3 | 1.135 |
| March | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | 1.083 |
| April | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | 1.081 |
| May | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | 1.116 |
| June | 53.1 | 52.5 | +0.6 | 1.123 |
| July | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | 1.101 |
| August
September October |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
1.114
1.123 1.121 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2017 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2018 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2019 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2020 February March April May June July |
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.7 51.7 50.7 51.0 52.8 52.8 49.4 51.7 52.0 53.5 54.5 56.0 57.6 56.8 55.3 55.5 56.7 56.5 59.3 60.2 58.5 58.2 59.3 59.1 60.7 59.3 57.9 58.7 60.0 58.4 60.8 59.5 57.5 58.8 54.3 56.6 54.2 55.3 52.8 52.1 51.7 51.2 49.1 47.8 48.3 48.1 47.4 50.9 50.1 49.1 41.5 43.1 52.6 54.2
|
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 53.5 53.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 57.4 58.1 58.5 60.1 60.6 59.6 58.6 56.6 56.2 55.5 54.9 55.1 54.6 53.2 52.0 51.8 51.4 50.5 49.3 47.5 47.9 47.7 47.6 46.5 47.0 45.7 45.9 46.9 46.3 47.9 49.2 44.5 33.4 39.4 47.4 51.8
|
-4.4
-4.8 -4.1 -1.5 +0.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 +0.8 -2.3 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.4 +0.8 +2.2 +0.6 -1.4 -1.5 -0.7 -0.1 +1.9 +2.1 0.0 -1.9 -1.3 -0.5 +2.1 +2.7 +1.7 +3.2 +5.1 +3.3 +6.2 +6.3 +5.5 +7.0 +2.9 +6.1 +4.9 +7.8 +4.9 +4.4 +4.1 +4.7 +2.1 +2.1 +2.4 +1.2 +1.1 +3.0 +0.9 +4.6 +8.1 +3.7 +5.2 +2.4 |
1.076
1.090 1.087 1.111 1.114 1.134 1.130 1.124 1.106 1.120 1.121 1.103 1.078 1.054 1.063 1.064 1.069 1.072 1.106 1.124 1.153 1.182 1.191 1.176 1.174 1.184 1.220 1.234 1.234 1.227 1.181 1.167 1.169 1.155 1.166 1.148 1.136 1.138 1.142 1.135 1.130 1.123 1.118 1.130 1.121 1.112 1.101 1.106 1.105 1.111 1.110 1.091 1.105 1.087 1.091 1.126 1.147 |
Copyright 2020, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Manufacturing PMIs
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