Bunch of Chinese Data Releases to Start the Week

July 15, 2019

Financial market activity was muted as July’s third week got under way. Japan was closed for Marine Day.

The dollar is unchanged from Friday closing levels against the yen and euro. The greenback has slipped 0.4% versus the kiwi, 0.2% relative to the Australian dollar and by 0.1% vis-a-vis the yuan, Swiss franc, peso, and loonie but has also strengthened 0.4% against sterling.

Share prices advanced 0.7% in Indonesia, 0.6% in Hong Kong, and 0.4% in India and China but also fell 0.7% in Australia and 0.4% in New Zealand. Stock markets in Europe are up 0.4% in the U.K., 0.3% in Spain and Switzerland, 0.2% in France and Italy, and 0.5% in Germany. The U.S. S&P 500 also opened higher.

Among commodities, the prices of  oil and gold firmed 0.5% and 0.2%.

Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell by 4, 3, and 1 basis point(s) in the U.K., Germany and U.S..

The latest batch of Chinese economic data reflects a continuing drag from trade barriers imposed by the United States, but on-year growth in retail sales and industrial production still managed to accelerate.

  • A 6.2% on-year advance in real GDP last quarter was the slowest since the first quarter of 1992. However, quarterly growth was slightly faster than in the previous two quarters.
  • Industrial production in June was 6.3% greater than a year earlier, its greatest 12-month rise in three months.
  • On-year growth in retail sales likewise climbed to 9.8% from 8.6% in May and 7.2% in April.
  • Fixed asset investment also picked up, lifting the year-to-date increase to 5.8% in the first half of 2019 from 5.6% in the first five months of the year.
  • Property price inflation remained in double digits at 10.3% in June after 10.7% in May.
  • The unemployment rate of 5.1% in June was above 5.0% in the prior two months but below 5.25% in 1Q.

Wholesale price inflation in India declined 0.4 percentage points to a 23-month low of 2.02% in June, mainly reflecting falling fuel prices but also lessening inflation in manufactured goods.

The U.S. monthly Empire State manufacturing index snapped sharply higher to a reading above zero of +4.3 in July after slumping to -8.6 in June from +17.8 in May.

The combined index of Swiss producer and import prices recorded the largest 12-month rate of decline (1.4%) in 38 months. Domestic producer prices were 0.7% lower than in June 2018 and down 0.2% from May’s level.

The Rightmove British house price index posted dips of 0.2% in June on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis.

Finnish CPI inflation eased to a 13-month low of 1.0% last month, but Polish PPI inflation of 2.6% in July was at its highest level since November 2012.

Indonesia experienced a $1.93 billion trade deficit in the first half of 2019, which was 61% wider than a year before.

Belgium’s January-April trade surplus of EUR 2.73 billion was almost half the size of the surplus accrued a year earlier.

In Ireland, the May trade surplus widened to a 4-month high of EUR 6.72 billion.

Canadian existing home sales were little changed in June, edging down 0.2% on month and up 0.3% on year.

New Zealand’s service sector purchasing managers index slipped back to a 2-month low of 52.7 in June. That level also lies below the long-term mean of this statistic.

Copyright 2019, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.


Tags: , , , ,


Comments are closed.