January 2019 in Figures
January 31, 2019
Equities rebounded sharply in January from their December slump, and the price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) soared 18.2%. There were no central bank policy rate changes among the major economies surveyed in this monthly feature, but the Federal Reserve signaled a shift from rate normalization to one of patience with no more increases unless inflation rises and adverse growth risks simmer down. Long-term interest rates fell over the course of January, not just in the United States but also in Germany, Canada and Britain. At the end of the month, the U.S. 6-month Treasury bill was a basis point higher than the 2-year note, and just five basis points separated the 2.51% 7-year yield from the 2.46% 6-month T-bill.
There was little net change in the dollar during January against either the euro or yen, but the U.S. currency lost 2.5% or more relative to the Canadian, New Zealand, Australian, Chinese and British monies. The dollar price of gold rose 2.9%.
| 10-Yr Yield | 12/31/18 | 01/31/19 | Chg v End-Dec |
| U.S. | 2.68% | 2.63% | -5 Basis Points |
| Germany | 0.24% | 0.15% | -9 |
| Japan | -0.01% | -0.01% | 0 |
| U.K. | 1.27% | 1.21% | -6 |
| Canada | 1.96% | 1.87% | -9 |
| Switzerland | -0.31% | -0.31% | 0 |
| CB Policy Rate | 12/31/18 | 01/31/19 | Change |
| Fed funds target | 2.25/2.50% | 2.25/2.50% | 0 Basis Points |
| ECB deposit rate | -0.40% | -0.40 | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | -0.10% | -0.10 | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 0.75% | 0.75% | 0 |
| Swiss 3M Libor | -1.25/-0.25% | -1.25/-0.25% | 0 |
| FX | 12/31/18 | 01/31/19 | Pct Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.1445 | 1.1446 | 0.0% |
| USD/JPY | 109.59 | 1o8.92 | -0.6% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9838 | 0.9944 | +1.1% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2740 | 1.3113 | -2.8% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7043 | 0.7272 | -3.1% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6706 | 0.6914 | -3.0% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3639 | 1.3140 | -3.7% |
| USD/CNY | 6.8785 | 6.6961 | -2.7% |
| Equities | 12/31/18 | 01/31/19 | Pct Change |
| S&P 500 | 2507 | 2702 | +7.8% |
| Nasdaq | 6635 | 7282 | +9.8% |
| Djia | 23327 | 25009 | +7.2% |
| Dax | 10559 | 11173 | +5.8% |
| Nikkei | 20015 | 20773 | +3.8% |
| Ftse | 6728 | 6969 | +3.6% |
| Canada TSE | 14323 | 15514 | +8.3% |
| Swiss SMI | 8429 | 8969 | +6.4% |
| Commodities | 12/31/18 | 01/31/19 | Chg v End-Dec |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 45.51 | 53.79 | +18.2% |
| Gold, $ per ounce | 1282.60 | 1319.70 | +2.9% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2019. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: bilateral dollar exchange rates, bond yields, oil and gold, stocks
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