U.S. and Euro Area Non-Manufacturing Business Conditions Each Improved Less Rapidly in October than September
November 6, 2018
Service sector activity in the euro area and non-manufacturing activity in the United States continued to expand last month but at a somewhat less robust pace than in September. This development paralleled the trend told by manufacturing purchasing manager indices released earlier this month. The right-most column in the table below, which adds the two sets of PMI spreads, indicates that the United States experience a commanding double-digit advantage over the euro area for a third straight month.
The ISM-compiled U.S. non-manufacturing PMI fell 1.3 points to a reading in October of 60.3. That still reflects rapidly improved conditions. Sub-indices for production and jobs each fell by 2.7 points between September and last month, but the measure of new business (i.e., orders) remains practically unchanged.
The IHS-compiled service sector purchasing managers index for the euro area also improved and at a slower rate in October, falling 1.0 point to 53.7. Most worrisome, the services PMI of Italy swung from a decent pace of improvement in September as attested by a 53.3 reading, to a slight rate of outright contraction, as that economy’s PMI fell below 50.0 to 49.2. That’s the first sub-50 reading since May 2016.
| PMIs | U.S. | Ezone | U.S. | Ezone | Sum of | ||
| NonMfg | Services | Spread | Mf’g | Mf’g | Spread | Spreads | |
| Jan 2012 | 56.8 | 50.4 | +6.4 | 54.1 | 48.8 | +5.3 | +10.9 |
| Feb | 56.1 | 48.8 | +7.3 | 51.9 | 49.0 | +2.9 | +10.2 |
| March | 55.0 | 49.2 | +5.8 | 53.3 | 47.7 | +5.6 | +11.4 |
| April | 53.7 | 46.9 | +6.8 | 54.1 | 45.9 | +8.2 | +15.0 |
| May | 54.1 | 46.7 | +7.4 | 52.5 | 45.1 | +7.4 | +14.8 |
| June | 52.7 | 47.1 | +5.6 | 50.2 | 45.1 | +5.1 | +10.7 |
| July | 52.9 | 47.9 | +5.0 | 50.5 | 44.0 | +6.5 | +11.5 |
| August | 54.3 | 47.2 | +7.1 | 50.7 | 45.1 | +5.6 | +12.7 |
| Sept | 55.2 | 46.1 | +9.1 | 51.6 | 46.1 | +5.5 | +14.6 |
| October | 54.8 | 46.0 | +8.8 | 51.7 | 45.4 | +6.3 | +15.1 |
| November | 54.8 | 46.7 | +8.1 | 49.9 | 46.2 | +3.7 | +11.8 |
| December | 55.7 | 47.8 | +7.9 | 50.2 | 46.1 | +4.1 | +12.0 |
| Jan 2013 | 55.2 | 48.6 | +6.6 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +11.8 |
| February | 54.8 | 47.9 | +8.1 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +13.3 |
| March | 54.5 | 46.4 | +8.1 | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | +12.8 |
| April | 53.8 | 47.0 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | +10.1 |
| May | 54.0 | 47.2 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | +8.5 |
| June | 53.4 | 48.3 | +5.1 | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | +8.8 |
| July | 55.9 | 49.8 | +6.1 | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | +10.7 |
| August | 57.9 | 50.7 | +7.2 | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | +12.1 |
| Sept | 54.5 | 52.2 | +2.3 | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | +7.2 |
| October | 55.1 | 51.6 | +3.5 | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | +8.8 |
| November | 54.1 | 51.2 | +2.9 | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | +8.3 |
| December | 53.0 | 51.0 | +2.0 | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | +5.8 |
| Jan 2014 | 54.0 | 51.6 | +2.4 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | -0.3 |
| February | 52.5 | 52.6 | -0.1 | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| March | 53.7 | 52.1 | +1.6 | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | +3.0 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.1 | +2.2 | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | +4.1 |
| May | 56.1 | 53.2 | +2.9 | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | +6.3 |
| June | 56.3 | 52.8 | +3.5 | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | +7.4 |
| July | 57.9 | 54.2 | +3.7 | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | +8.3 |
| August | 58.6 | 53.1 | +5.5 | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | +12.9 |
| Sept | 58.1 | 52.4 | +5.7 | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | +11.5 |
| October | 56.9 | 52.1 | +4.8 | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | +12.1 |
| November | 58.8 | 51.1 | +7.7 | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | +15.2 |
| December | 56.5 | 51.6 | +4.9 | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | +9.4 |
| Jan 2015 | 56.7 | 52.7 | +4.0 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | +6.5 |
| February | 57.1 | 53.7 | +4.4 | 52.3 | 51.0 | +1.3 | +5.7 |
| March | 56.9 | 54.2 | +2.7 | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | +2.8 |
| April | 57.5 | 54.1 | +3.4 | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | +3.0 |
| May | 55.9 | 53.8 | +2.1 | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | +3.0 |
| June | 56.2 | 54.4 | +1.8 | 53.1 | 53.1 | 0.0 | +1.8 |
| July | 59.6 | 54.0 | +5.6 | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | +5.1 |
| August
Sept October |
58.3
56.7 58.3 |
54.4
53.7 54.1 |
+3.9
+3.0 +4.2 |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
+2.6
+1.0 +1.3 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April May June July August Sept October November December Jan 2017 February March April May June July August Sept October November December Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 Aug 2018 Sept 2018 Oct 2018
|
56.6
55.8 53.5 54.3 54.9 55.7 53.6 56.1 54.9 51.7 56.6 54.6 56.2 56.6 56.5 57.4 55.6 57.3 57.1 57.2 54.3 55.2 59.4 59.8 57.3 56.0 59.9 59.5 58.8 56.8 58.6 59.1 55.7 58.5 61.6 60.3 |
54.2
54.2 53.6 53.3 53.1 53.1 53.3 52.8 52.9 52.8 52.2 52.8 53.9 54.4 53.7 55.5 56.0 56.4 56.3 55.4 54.9 54.7 55.8 55.0 56.2 56.6 58.0 56.2 54.9 54.7 53.8 55.2 54.2 54.4 54.7 53.7
|
+1.7
+1.6 -0.1 +1.0 +1.8 +2.6 +0.3 +3.3 +2.0 -1.1 +4.4 +1.8 +2.3 +2.2 +2.8 +1.9 -0.4 +0.9 +0.8 +1.8 -0.6 +0.5 +3.6 +4.8 +1.1 -0.6 +1.9 +3.3 +3.9 +2.1 +4.8 +3.9 +1.5 +4.1 +6.9 +6.6 |
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.7 51.7 50.7 51.0 52.8 52.8 49.4 51.7 52.0 53.5 54.5 56.0 57.6 56.6 55.3 55.5 56.7 56.5 59.3 60.2 58.5 58.2 59.3 59.1 60.8 59.3 57.3 58.7 60.2 58.1 61.3 59.8 57.7 |
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 53.5 53.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 57.4 58.1 58.5 60.1 63.3 61.1 58.6 56.6 56.2 55.5 54.9 55.1 54.6 53.2 52.0 |
-4.4
-5.2 -4.1 -1.5 +0.1 -1.0 -0.5 +0.0 +0.8 -2.3 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.4 +0.8 +2.2 +0.4 -1.4 -1.5 -0.7 -0.1 +1.9 +2.1 0.0 -1.9 -4.0 -2.0 +2.2 +2.7 +1.1 +3.2 +5.3 +3.0 +6.7 +6.6 +5.7 |
-2.7
-3.6 -4.2 -1.4 +1.5 +1.6 -0.9 +3.7 +3.4 -3.7 +4.0 +0.5 +3.1 +1.8 +3.6 +4.1 +0.0 -0.5 -0.7 +1.1 -0.7 +2.4 +5.7 +4.8 -0.8 -4.6 -0.1 +5.5 +6.6 +3.2 +9.0 +9.2 +4.5 +10.8 +13.5 +12.3 |
Copyright 2018, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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