Japanese Tankan and a Slew of Manufacturing PMIs Reported

April 3, 2017

The dollar gained over 1% further against the South African Rand and rose 0.6% overnight versus the kiwi. Other dollar advances thus far today amount to 0.4% relative to the loonie, 0.2% vis-a-vis sterling, and 0.1% against the euro, peso and Swiss franc.

China is closed for the Ching Ming Festival and will remain shut tomorrow.

Share prices climbed 1.0% in India, 0.8% in Hong Kong, 0.7% in New Zealand and Indonesia, and 0.4% in Japan and Singapore. But stocks in Europe have slid 0.3% in France, 0.7% in Spain, 0.2% in the U.K. and Italy. Spain and Britain are at loggerheads over the handling of Gibraltar governance after Brexit. Not all European bourses have slipped. Equities are upĀ 0.3% in Switzerland and 0.2% in Germany.

The 10-year British gilt and German bund yields fell 3 and 2 basis points.

WTI crude oil is barely holding above $50, with a 0.1% uptick to $50.65 per barrel. Comex gold is trading 0.3% lower at $1,247.10 per ounce.

The Bank of Japan’s quarter Tankan survey of companies reflected a greater-than-anticipated improvement in business conditions between December and March that is not projected to be sustained into mid-2017. Projected sales, earnings and planned investment in the new fiscal year are pretty meager.

Euroland’s manufacturing PMI for March is 0.8 points higher than the reading in February and at a 71-month peak of 56.2. Inflationary pressure continues to build on higher input costs and more prevalent supply delays.The German PMI (58.3) was also at a 71-month peak, while Italy’s score (55.7) was a 72-month high. The French PMI of 53.2 was a 2-month high, but the readings in The Netherlands (57.8), Austria (56.8), Spain (53.9), Ireland (53.6) and Greece (46.7) were lower than in February. Only Greece reported an outright contraction of activity with a sub-50 score.

Britain’s manufacturing PMI fell 0.3 points to a 4-month low of 54.2, which nonetheless was above the long-term average of 51.6 in this data series.

The Swiss PMI advanced another 0.8 points to an elevated 58.6 reading.

Australia’s PMI dropped 1.8 points below February’s 177-month high to 57.5.

Japan’s manufacturing PMI declined 0.9 points to a 3-month low of 52.4.

China’s PMI dipped half a point to a 2-month low of 51.2.

India’s PMI in manufacturing showed quickening expansion, rising to a 5-month high of 53.5.

South Korea’s PMI was down 0.8 points at a 4-month low of 48.4.

Indonesia’s PMI moved back above 50 to a 2-month high of 50.5.

The Malaysian PMI of 49.5 moved closer to the 50 breakeven point and was at its best level in 22 months. Vietnam’s PMI reading of 54.6 also was the best in 22 months.

The Filipino PMI edged up 0.2 to a 3-month high of 53.8.

But Thailand’s PMI fell further to 50.2, a 4-month low.

Russia’s been getting a lot of bad press around the world, and its manufacturing PMI dipped 0.1 to a 5-month low of 52.4.

Turkey reported a 37-month high in its manufacturing PMI of 52.3 but also sharply higher inflation. PPI inflation of 16.1% was the highest level since July 2008, and CPI inflation of 11.3% was at its most elevated level since October of the same year.

Poland’s 53.5 PMI was at a 4-month low. The Czech PMI dipped 0.1 but signaled robust conditions with a 57.5 reading.

The Swedish PMI climbed off the charts to 65.2 from an upwardly revised 62.1 and constituted the fourth PMI above 60 in a row. Norway’s PMI increased 2.1 points to 54.7.

Japanese motor vehicle sales were 13.8% greater in March than a year earlier following on-year increases of 13.4% in February and 8.6% in January.

Euroland producer prices were unchanged on month in February due to a 1.1% drop in energy. The 12-month rise in the PPI nevertheless climbed to 4.5% from 3.9% the month before and zero as recently as November.

Euroland’s jobless rate edged down 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 9.5% in February. It was 10.3% in February 2016.

Australian retail sales edged down 0.1% in February, trimming the 12-month increase3 to 2.9% from 3.2% in the year to January.

Aussie building permits jumped unexpectedly by 8.3% in February, and job ads went up 0.3% on month.

In the year to March, Indonesian consumer prices climbed 3.6% overall and 3.3% among core items only. In the same span, consumer prices in Thailand rose 0.8% in total and 0.6% on a core basis.

Italy’s jobless rate fell to 11.5% in February from 11.8% in January.

The U.S. manufacturing PMI and construction spending data get released today.

Copyright 2017, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.

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