Many Data Releases and a Drop in Oil

November 29, 2016

With Wednesday’s OPEC meeting in Vienna looming, WTI oil slumped 3.6% to $45.38 per barrel. No deal to control production has emerged so far. Gold and industrial metal prices are lower, too.

The dollar weakened overnight by 0.7% against sterling and the kiwi and also dipped 0.2% against the yuan and 0.1% versus the euro. The dollar strengthened 0.6% against the yen and 0.2% relative to the loonie but is unchanged against the Swiss franc and Mexican peso.

U.S. share prices are little changed following several U.S. data reports. Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.3% lower, and the Hang Seng dropped 0.5%. Stocks in Europe have risen 0.8% in France, 0.5% in Spain and 0.2% in Germany but declined 0.6% in Great Britain.

The ten-year Treasury yield recovered part of Monday’s drop. The 10-year German bund yield firmed two basis points, while its British and Japanese counterparts are steady.

U.S. real GDP growth in the third quarter was revised up to 3.2% at an annualized rate from 2.9% reported a month ago. Consumption, net exports, and inventory building powered the increase. GDP was only 1.6% greater than a year earlier, however. The personal consumption and core PCE price deflators recorded on-year advances of 1.0% and 1.7%.

The Case-Shiller index of U.S. house prices in 20 metro areas went up 0.4% on month and 5.5% on year. Such also eclipsed the pre-financial crisis low.

The Conference Board’s gauge of U.S. consumer confidence soared 6.3 points to a 112-month high in November of 107.1.

Japanese data released overnight revealed

  • An unchanged 3.0% jobless rate in October. Employment was 1.0% greater than a year earlier, and the ratio of job offers to seekers rose 0.02 points to 1.40.
  • A 0.4% on-year decline in real household spending in October. The change from September was a dip of 0.3% following a monthly 2.5% increase in September.
  • A 2.5% monthly advance in retail sales, which nevertheless were 0.1% softer than a year earlier.

Economic sentiment in Euroland edged up 0.1 to a lower-than-forecast November reading of 106.5, highest since December 2015. Consumer confidence and service sector sentiment also posted 11-month highs, but industrial sector confidence fell 0.5 points to a 2-month low. The business climate index of 0.42 was at a 3-month low.

The flash CPI report from Germany showed the same on-year pace, +0.8%, in November as in October. That’s the most in two years. Energy fell 2.7%, while the price index for services was 1.1% greater than a year ago.

German  import prices leaped 0.9% on month in October because of a 9.2% surge in the cost of mineral fuels. Import prices were just 0.6% lower than in October 2015 versus a 6.6% drop in the year to April 2016. Export prices rose 0.3% on month and were 0.1% lower than a year earlier.

French real GDP rose 0.2% between 2Q16 and last quarter and was 1.1% greater than a year earlier. French consumer spending increased 0.9% in October, more than reversing September’s slide of 0.4%, and such recorded a 1.5% advance from October 2015.

Austria’s November purchasing managers index for manufacturing climbed 1.6 points to a 5-1/2 year high of 55.4.

Greek real GDP jumped 0.8% on quarter in the third quarter, which lifted the on-year growth pace to 1.8%, most since the first quarter of 2008.

Swedish real GDP grew 0.5% last quarter, but the on-year pace of advance slowed to 2.8% from 3.6%.

Spanish CPI inflation held steady in November at 0.7%.  Cypriot industrial production was 2.1% greater than a year earlier in September, much less than the 8.4% on-year advance in January-September.

Portuguese consumer sentiment rose 1.1 points to -10.5 in November, best since October 2000.

British mortgage approvals totaled 67.52K last month, up from 63.59K in September. M4 money growth accelerated to 6.4%.

In the year to October, South African M3 money growth accelerated unexpectedly to 6.6%, but private credit growth slowed more than assumed to 6.3%. The rand fell more than 1.5% today.

In the year to October, producer prices fell 2.7% in Singapore and 1.1% in Brazil. Brazilian unemployment in August-October averaged 11.8%, up from 11.6% in the previous 3-month period and 8.9% a year earlier.

Copyright 2016, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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