Looking for U.S. Data to Provide Today’s Market Guidance

December 22, 2015

Revised U.S. GDP heads a bunch of data releases later this morning that also includes existing home sales, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, home prices, and weekly Johnson-Redbook chain store sales.  The GDP revision is likely to show less growth than reported initially.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were well bid overnight, climbing 0.8% and 0.7% against their U.S. counterpart.  The loonie, another commodity-sensitive money, rose 0.3%, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading 0.8% firmer at $36.08 per barrel.  The U.S. currency has otherwise dipped 0.1% against the euro, Swissie and yen, while showing no net change relative to the yuan or sterling.

Ten-year British gilt and German bund yields climbed by three and one basis points.  The 10-year Japanese JGB edged another basis point lower to 0.27%.

Small business sentiment in Japan, the so-called Shoko Chukin monthly index, fell more than forecast in December, dropping 1.6 points to a 6-month low of 48.3.

Comex gold slid 0.1% to $1,077.35 per troy ounce.

Share prices rose 0.6% in New Zealand, South Korea and Indonesia, 0.3% in China and Singapore, and 0.2% in Australia but closed down 0.2% in Japan.  In Europe, equities have thus far risen 0.8% today in Spain, 0.5% in Switzerland and 0.2% in France and Italy but are down 0.2% in Germany.

German consumer sentiment improved unexpectedly to a reading of 9.4 in January from 9.3 in December, exhibiting proof that the Paris attacks have been a smaller deterrent than feared.

British consumer confidence rose a point to +2 in December.

German import prices recorded a seventh straight month-on-month decline in November, falling 0.2%, but the 12-month rate of decline narrowed to a 3-month low of 3.5%.  Energy plunged 28.5% on year but import prices other than mineral fuels were just 0.5% lower.  Export prices edged 0.1% higher on month and were 0.3% above their year-earlier level.

Danish third-quarter GDP was revised to a drop of 0.4% on quarter from a 0.1% dip reported initially.  On-year growth collapsed to 0.5% in 3Q from 1.8% in the second quarter.

Swedish producer prices slipped 0.1% on month and fell 1.5% on year in November.  Swedish retail sales surpassed the year-earlier level by 5.2% in November, same as in October.  In the year to November, Icelandic producer prices dropped 5.3%, while CPI inflation held steady at 2.0% in December.

Finland’s seasonally adjusted jobless rate held at 9.2% last month but was lower than forecast.

Britain’s public sector borrowing of GBP 14.2 billion in November (excluding banking groups) surpassed expectations, and the debt/GDP ratio edged up to 80.5%.

China’s indices of leading and coincident economic indicators each rose 0.6% in November according to the Conference Board.

Turkey’s central bank appears likely to raise interest rates today in spite of the government’s opposition to tightening.

Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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