Parade of Factory Purchasing Manager Surveys Yields Mixed Results for October

November 2, 2015

Today is the first business day of November and the beginning of standard time in North America.  Many European countries observed All Saints Day on Sunday, and Japan celebrates Culture Day tomorrow.

Share prices fell 1.7% in China, 2.1% in Japan, 1.4% in Australia, 1.1% in Hong Hong, 0.8% in Singapore and 0.4% in India.

In Europe, by contrast, stocks have traded 0.8%, 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.4% higher in Germany, Spain, France and Italy.  The British Ftse slipped 0.4% in spite of a 16-month high in the U.K. manufacturing PMI reading.  The 10-year British gilt yield rose two basis points to 1.94%.  A rise of Treasury yields at the open is indicated in futures trading.  The 10-year German bund and Japanese JGB yields remained unchanged and very low at 0.52% and 0.30%, respectively.

West Texas Intermediate oil, which had risen strongly in October, is down 1.6% this first business day of November.

Comex gold has eased 0.3% to $1,138.50 per troy ounce.

According to the Caixin compilation, China’s manufacturing PMI advanced 1.1 points to a 4-month high of 48.3 in October, but price deflation was pronounced.  The government-authorized manufacturing PMI remained steady at 49.8, implying marginal contraction, while the non-manufacturing government-authorized PMI printed at 53.1 in October, 0.3 points lower than its September reading.

Britain’s manufacturing PMI jumped 3.7 points to a 16-month high of 55.5.  Growth in both production and new business orders accelerated.

Euroland’s October factory PMI got revised up 0.3 points to a 2-month higher of 52.3, still weaker than hoped and suggesting a growth trend in manufacturing of no more than 2%. 

Italy topped the leader board of eurozone manufacturing PMI readings in October at 54.1, a 3-month high.  Such was followed by The Netherlands (53.7, a 2-month high), Ireland (53.6, a 2-month low), Austria (53.0, a 20-month high), Germany (52.1, a 3-month low), Spain (51.3, a 22-month low), France (unchanged at 50.6), and Greece (47.3, a 5-month high).  A score of 50 divides expansion from contraction.  Manufacturing grew in all cases except Greece, and in that exception, the pace of contraction has slowed very sharply since July when the reading was only 30.2.

The Swiss manufacturing PMI rose 1.2 points to a 2-month high of 50.7, beating forecasts.

Sweden’s factory PMI edged 0.2 points upward to a 3-month high of 53.5.  Norway’s PMI climbed 1.0 points to a 6-month high of 48.3. 

Among Eastern European economies, the Polish 52.2 PMI was at a 3-month high after a 12-month low of 50.9 in September.  The Czech PMI dropped 1.5 points to a 10-month low of 54.0, and Hungary’s reading of 55.3 was unchanged from September’s 4-month high.

Japan offered one of the brightest reports, with a one-year high of 52.4 in its manufacturing PMI survey.  Production grew at the fastest pace in 8 months, while orders advanced at its most rapid rate since October 2014.

South Korea’s factory PMI dipped 0.1 to a 2-month low of 49.1.  Taiwan’s factory PMI score of 47.8 was a 3-month high. Vietnam’s 50.1 was at a 2-month peak.  Malaysia’s 48.1 represents a 5-month high, and Indonesia posted a 2-month high of 47.6.

But India’s PMI in manufacturing fell 0.5 points to a 22-month low of 50.7. 

Australia’s PMI fell back 1.9 points to a 4-month low of 50.2.

After recording a 5-month low in September, Turkey’s PMI rose by 0.7 points to a 3-month high of 49.5.

Russia’s factory PMI rose 1.6 points to 50.7, an 11-month high.

Japanese motor vehicle sales were 0.2% higher than a year earlier in October after falling by 3.0% in the year to September.

In the year to October, Thai consumer prices fell by 0.8%, and the PPI dropped 3.1%.  Indonesian CPI inflation slowed to a lower-than-expected 6.25% last month from 6.83% in September.

Swiss retail sales edged up 0.1% in September after back-to-back declines of 0.1% in July and 0.2% in August.  Sales were only 0.2% greater than a year before.

Building permits in Australia rebounded 2.2% in September and were 21.4% greater than a year earlier.

Still to come:  U.S. and Canadian PMIs and U.S. construction spending.

Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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