Archive for May 2015

Larry's Blog

Uncompromising and Incompetent Leadership

May 31, 2015

It’s hard to maintain critical mass when the implicit message is lead, follow or get the hell out of the way.  Organizations need dreamers and leaders.  Success also requires good administrators and committed worker bees.  In the case of a local organization, damage to morale from the refusal by leaders to compromise is multiplied by […] More

Deeper Analysis

May in Figures

May 30, 2015

The dollar resumed its uptrend in May following a counter-trend move in April.  An exception was the yuan, which marches to a government-managed beat rather than one set by market forces.  The kiwi was the weakest currency among those charted in this feature.  Long-term interest rates were mixed in May, while short-term rates again barely […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

May 29, 2015

Holidays:  Queen’s Birthday in New Zealand (Monday) and Republic Day in Italy (Tuesday). Special Events:  OPEC meeting in Vienna, release of OECD Outlook, and Greek debt payment to IMF, all on Wednesday. Central Bank Watch:  Policy meetings are scheduled at the Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of India, European Central Bank, Bank of England, […] More

Deeper Analysis

North American GDP Contracted Last Quarter

May 29, 2015

U.S. and Canadian real GDP declined at similar annualized rates of 0.7% and 0.6% in the first quarter.  Those were the first contractions in four quarters in the U.S. instance and in 19 quarters in Canada’s case.  U.S. nominal GDP fell 0.9%, and the personal consumption price deflator registered an on-year uptick of only 0.3%, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Many GDP Reports on Final Business Day of May

May 29, 2015

Investors await U.S. and Canadian national income account statistics. First-quarter GDP figures have already been released in many other economies. Swiss GDP fell 0.2% on quarter and slowed to a 1.1% on-year pace from 1.9%.  The result fell short of expectations. Italian GDP rose 0.3% on quarter and 0.1% on year — weak but at […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Confusion around Greek Debt Talks and a Big Drop in Chinese Stocks

May 28, 2015

Greek officials are expressing confidence a deal will be struck within three days.  The IMF and other creditors warn that the sides are still far apart.  Greece has been the main topic as G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs continue to meet in Dresden, Germany. Chinese equities plummeted 6.7%, most in several months.  The […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Canada Left Overnight Interest Rate Target at 0.75%

May 27, 2015

The fourth of eight scheduled monetary policy meetings decided the present policy stance is still appropriate but observed that higher oil prices and a softer U.S. dollar in recent weeks, noting that “if these developments are sustained, their net effect will need to be assessed as more data become available in the months ahead.”  The […] More

Central Bank Watch

Magyar Nemzeti Bank

May 27, 2015

The Hungarian central bank base rate was cut in a third straight month on Tuesday, and like reductions in March and April, the size of the move was 15 basis points.  The new level becomes 1.65%, and a statement explaining the latest action retains an easing policy bias. if the assumptions underlying the Bank’s projections […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Calmer Conditions than Yesterday

May 27, 2015

Following the Memorial Day closure, the dollar climbed sharply on Tuesday, sending equities lower including a 190-point drop in the DOW.  Whether the Fed hikes the federal funds target on June 17 remains uncertain.  Richmond Fed President Lacker overnight said his vote hasn’t yet been decided and will hinge on data between now and then. […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Summer Season

May 25, 2015

The solstice that kicks off astronomical summer still lies almost a month away, but summer for currency market participants has just begun.  In foreign exchange, the year divides into three seasons, not four:  1) before the U.S. Memorial Day holiday, 2) the summer, and 3) what’s left of the calendar year after the Labor Day […] More

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