Larry's Blog
Uncompromising and Incompetent Leadership
May 31, 2015
It’s hard to maintain critical mass when the implicit message is lead, follow or get the hell out of the way. Organizations need dreamers and leaders. Success also requires good administrators and committed worker bees. In the case of a local organization, damage to morale from the refusal by leaders to compromise is multiplied by […] More
Deeper Analysis
May in Figures
May 30, 2015
The dollar resumed its uptrend in May following a counter-trend move in April. An exception was the yuan, which marches to a government-managed beat rather than one set by market forces. The kiwi was the weakest currency among those charted in this feature. Long-term interest rates were mixed in May, while short-term rates again barely […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
May 29, 2015
Holidays: Queen’s Birthday in New Zealand (Monday) and Republic Day in Italy (Tuesday). Special Events: OPEC meeting in Vienna, release of OECD Outlook, and Greek debt payment to IMF, all on Wednesday. Central Bank Watch: Policy meetings are scheduled at the Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of India, European Central Bank, Bank of England, […] More
Deeper Analysis
North American GDP Contracted Last Quarter
May 29, 2015
U.S. and Canadian real GDP declined at similar annualized rates of 0.7% and 0.6% in the first quarter. Those were the first contractions in four quarters in the U.S. instance and in 19 quarters in Canada’s case. U.S. nominal GDP fell 0.9%, and the personal consumption price deflator registered an on-year uptick of only 0.3%, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Many GDP Reports on Final Business Day of May
May 29, 2015
Investors await U.S. and Canadian national income account statistics. First-quarter GDP figures have already been released in many other economies. Swiss GDP fell 0.2% on quarter and slowed to a 1.1% on-year pace from 1.9%. The result fell short of expectations. Italian GDP rose 0.3% on quarter and 0.1% on year — weak but at […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Confusion around Greek Debt Talks and a Big Drop in Chinese Stocks
May 28, 2015
Greek officials are expressing confidence a deal will be struck within three days. The IMF and other creditors warn that the sides are still far apart. Greece has been the main topic as G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs continue to meet in Dresden, Germany. Chinese equities plummeted 6.7%, most in several months. The […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Canada Left Overnight Interest Rate Target at 0.75%
May 27, 2015
The fourth of eight scheduled monetary policy meetings decided the present policy stance is still appropriate but observed that higher oil prices and a softer U.S. dollar in recent weeks, noting that “if these developments are sustained, their net effect will need to be assessed as more data become available in the months ahead.” The […] More
Central Bank Watch
Magyar Nemzeti Bank
May 27, 2015
The Hungarian central bank base rate was cut in a third straight month on Tuesday, and like reductions in March and April, the size of the move was 15 basis points. The new level becomes 1.65%, and a statement explaining the latest action retains an easing policy bias. if the assumptions underlying the Bank’s projections […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Calmer Conditions than Yesterday
May 27, 2015
Following the Memorial Day closure, the dollar climbed sharply on Tuesday, sending equities lower including a 190-point drop in the DOW. Whether the Fed hikes the federal funds target on June 17 remains uncertain. Richmond Fed President Lacker overnight said his vote hasn’t yet been decided and will hinge on data between now and then. […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Summer Season
May 25, 2015
The solstice that kicks off astronomical summer still lies almost a month away, but summer for currency market participants has just begun. In foreign exchange, the year divides into three seasons, not four: 1) before the U.S. Memorial Day holiday, 2) the summer, and 3) what’s left of the calendar year after the Labor Day […] More
