Many GDP Reports on Final Business Day of May

May 29, 2015

Investors await U.S. and Canadian national income account statistics.

First-quarter GDP figures have already been released in many other economies.

  • Swiss GDP fell 0.2% on quarter and slowed to a 1.1% on-year pace from 1.9%.  The result fell short of expectations.
  • Italian GDP rose 0.3% on quarter and 0.1% on year — weak but at least above zero.
  • Greek GDP slipped 0.2% on quarter and grew 0.4% on year.
  • Swedish growth slowed.  GDP rose 0.4% in 1Q after 1.1% in 4Q14 but still managed to post a 2.5% advance on year.
  • Polish GDP grew 1.0% from 4Q and 3.6% versus the first quarter of 2014.
  • Czech GDP accelerated to a quarterly 3.1% rise and an on-year pace of 4.2%.
  • Danish GDP climbed 0.5% on quarter and 1.9% on year.
  • Portuguese GDP grew 0.4% versus the prior quarter and 1.5% year-over-year.

The dollar climbed 0.7% against the kiwi, 0.4% relative to sterling and 0.1% vis-a-vis the yuan.  The dollar has slipped 0.2% against the euro and 0.1% versus the yen, Swissie and Australian dollar.  The loonie is steady ahead of Canadian GDP.

Share prices in the Pacific Rim rose 1.2% in India and New Zealand, 1.1% in Australia and 0.1% in Japan and China but fell 0.8% in Singapore and 0.4% in Indonesia.  In Europe, stocks have dropped by 0.5% in France, Germany and Greece and by 0.2% in Spain and Switzerland.  The British Ftse is 0.3% firmer.

The ten-year British gilt and German bund yields declined two basis points, while the 10-year Japanese JGB firmed a basis point.

Gold at $1,189 per ounce is steady.  WTI oil increased 1.3% overnight to $58.44 per barrel.

Some other data release highlights include:

  • M3 money growth in the eurozone accelerated to 5.3% on year in April from 4.6% in March.  This rise was powered by a leap in marketable instrument growth (the difference between M3 and M2) to 11.6% in April from 4.4% in March.  However, credit growth remains very lackluster.  Private loans were just 0.1% higher than a year before.  Loans to firms fell 0.4%, and mortgage lending edged only 0.1% higher.
  • German retail sales volume jumped 1.7% in April, beating forecasts of a 1% rise.  It was the largest increase since October and put April’s level 0.7% above the first-quarter average.
  • French consumer spending ticked up 0.1% in April, but the on-year advance slowed slightly to 2.0%.
  • Japanese industrial production climbed 1.0% on month in April, trimming the 12-month decline to just 0.1%.
  • Japanese core CPI inflation (excluding consumption tax distortion) rose to 0.3% in April from 0.2% in March and zero in February.  However, Tokyo consumer price inflation in May accelerated.
  • On-year changes in Japanese housing starts (+0.4%) and construction orders (-12.1%) were weak in April.
  • Japan’s 3.3% jobless rate in April was at an 18-year low and accompanied by further improvement in the job applicants ratio.
  • Real household consumption in Japan, down 1.3% on year, posted a 13th straight decline in April.
  • Japanese motor vehicle production was 7.5% lower than a year earlier in April.
  • British consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to a May reading of 1 from a score of 4 in April.
  • Australian M3 money growth rose to 7.7% last month and matched the pace of New Zealand M3 growth in the same month.
  • New Zealand building permits fell 1.7% last month, and business sentiment in May slid sharply to a 7-month low.
  • Australian new home sales rose just 0.6% in April, the smallest gain in 4 months, and private credit went up 0.3% on month, least in 17 months.

Various producer price reports were released today.  The latest on-year PPI changes are -5.1% in Greece, -2.0% in France, -5.9% in Malaysia, -4.8% in Cyprus, -0.9% in Austria, -7.9% in Singapore, +14.4% in Iceland, and -1.7% in Hungary.

Thailand’s trade surplus shrunk in April.  Turkey’s deficit fell in April. 

Denmark’s jobless rate held at 4.8%, a 6-year low.  Norwegian retail sale increased 3.8% in the year to April, and its jobless rate of 2.7% in May fell for a second month in a row.

Spanish CPI inflation in May — up 0.5% on month and down just 0.2% on year — exceeded expectations.

U.S. releases today include GDP and the Chicago and Milwaukee PMIs.  Canada reports first-quarter and March GDP.

Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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