Second Straight Decline in U.S. Non-manufacturing PMI Reading

November 5, 2014

Euroland’s service-sector PMI edged just 0.1 point lower in October.  In contrast, the U.S. non-manufacturing PMI fell 1.5 points and recorded a decline of 2.5 points between August and October.  The spread between the U.S. and Ezone measures contracted to 4.8 points from 6.2 points.  However, the differential between their manufacturing PMIs had widened by 2.1 points, so the sum of the two spreads indicated a widening U.S. advantage of 13.2 points, most in twenty months.

The slower growth pace of non-manufacturing U.S. activity was broadly distributed with the indices for sales, orders and prices posting decreases of 2.9, 1.9 and 3.1 points in October.  Jobs, in contrast, rose 1.1 points to 59.6.

In the euro area as a whole, services are expanding faster than manufacturing.  Among the second and third largest economies in the bloc, however, France is contracting with a sub-50 reading of 48.3, and Italy (50.8 following scores of 48.8 in September and 49.8 in August) saw only a slim pace of expansion.

PMIs U.S. Ezone   U.S. Ezone   Sum of
  Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads
Jan 2012 56.8 50.4 +6.4 54.1 48.8 +5.3 +10.9
Feb 56.1 48.8 +7.3 51.9 49.0 +2.9 +10.2
March 55.0 49.2 +5.8 53.3 47.7 +5.6 +11.4
April 53.7 46.9 +6.8 54.1 45.9 +8.2 +15.0
May 54.1 46.7 +7.4 52.5 45.1 +7.4 +14.8
June 52.7 47.1 +5.6 50.2 45.1 +5.1 +10.7
July 52.9 47.9 +5.0 50.5 44.0 +6.5 +11.5
August 54.3 47.2 +7.1 50.7 45.1 +5.6 +12.7
Sept 55.2 46.1 +9.1 51.6 46.1 +5.5 +14.6
October 54.8 46.0 +8.8 51.7 45.4 +6.3 +15.1
November 54.8 46.7 +8.1 49.9 46.2 +3.7 +11.8
December 55.7 47.8 +7.9 50.2 46.1 +4.1 +12.0
Jan 2013 55.2 48.6 +6.6 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +11.8
February 54.8 47.9 +8.1 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +13.3
March 54.5 46.4 +8.1 51.5 46.8 +4.7 +12.8
April 53.8 47.0 +6.8 50.0 46.7 +3.3 +10.1
May 54.0 47.2 +6.8 50.0 48.3 +1.7 +8.5
June 53.4 48.3 +5.1 52.5 48.8 +3.7 +8.8
July 55.9 49.8 +6.1 54.9 50.3 +4.6 +10.7
August 57.9 50.7 +7.2 56.3 51.4 +4.9 +12.1
Sept 54.5 52.2 +2.3 56.0 51.1 +4.9 +7.2
October 55.1 51.6 +3.5 56.6 51.3 +5.3 +8.8
November 54.1 51.2 +2.9 57.0 51.6 +5.4 +8.3
December 53.0 51.0 +2.0 56.5 52.7 +3.8 +5.8
Jan 2014 54.0 51.6 +2.4 51.3 54.0 -2.7 -0.3
February 51.6 52.6 -1.0 53.2 53.2 0.0 -1.0
March 53.1 52.1 +1.0 53.7 53.0 +0.7 +1.6
April 55.2 53.1 +2.1 54.9 53.4 +1.5 +3.6
May 56.3 53.2 +3.1 55.4 52.2 +3.2 +6.3
June 56.0 52.8 +3.2 55.3 51.8 +3.5 +6.7
July 58.7 54.2 +4.5 57.1 51.8 +5.3 +9.8
August 59.6 53.1 +6.5 59.0 50.7 +8.3 +14.8
Sept 58.6 52.4 +6.2 56.6 50.3 +6.3 +12.5
October 57.1 52.3 +4.8 59.0 50.6 +8.4 +13.2

Copyright 2014, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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