Steady Dollar in Spite of Many Data Releases

June 27, 2014

The dollar is down 0.3% against the yen, 0.2% versus the Swiss franc and 0.1% relative to the euro and yuan.  The dollar is unchanged vis-a-vis the loonie and 0.2% firmer against the kiwi and up 0.1% against the Aussie dollar and sterling.

Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.4% after some disappointing Japanese data.

  • Although CPI inflation rose 0.3 percentage points further to 3.7%, the CPI excluding food and energy posted only a 0.1% month-on-month uptick, and Tokyo CPI inflation eased to 3.0% from 3.1%.
  • After a staggering 13.6% monthly plunge in April, retail sales recovered just 4.6% in May and were 0.4% lower than a year earlier.  Large store sales fell 1.2% on year.
  • Real household spending sank 8.0% on year in May, almost twice as much as in April.
  • The jobless rate’s further dip to 3.5% was a bright spot.

The British Ftse and German Dax are marginally higher.  The DOW opened marginally lower.

Oil and gold are 0.1% and 0.2% firmer.  Ten-year German bunds and British gilts are steady.

Ezone economic sentiment dropped to 102.0 in June from 102.6 in May.  Consumer confidence printed at -7.5 after -7.1, and industrial sentiment lost 1.2 points to -4.3.

CPI inflation in Germany accelerated to 1.0% in June, suggesting that regional disinflation may be flattening.  German import prices fell 2.1% in the year to May, less than the 2.4% slide in the year to April.

Italian business sentiment ticked up to 100.0 from a reading of 99.8 in May.

French GDP stagnated in the first quarter and was only 0.7% greater than in 1Q13 according to the final estimate.  French producer prices fell 0.2% on year last month.

Retail sales in Spain were 0.5% greater than a year before in May.  Consumer prices in June were unchanged from a year earlier.  Portuguese business confidence and consumer sentiment each improved somewhat this month.

Austria’s manufacturing PMI weakened by a half point to 50.4 in June.  Finnish consumer confidence stagnated at a reading of 8.7 this month.

British GDP grew 0.8% on quarter and 3.0% on year in 1Q.  The current account deficit narrowed less than forecast to GBP 18.495 billion from GBP 23.519 billion in 4Q13.  Bank of England Governor Carney hinted that the Base Rate will climb to 2.5% in about three years from now.  British consumer sentiment edged a point higher to +1 in June.

The 12-month increase in Swedish retail sales slowed to 5.0% in May from 6.5% in April.

The Swiss index of leading economic indicators firmed 0.3 of a point to 100.4 in May.

Canadian producer price inflation slowed to 3.4% in May from 3.9% in April.

U.S. consumer sentiment according to the monthly Reuters/U. Michigan index rose 1.3 points in June.  This improvement only partly balances weak news earlier in the week such as the downward revision of real GDP in 1Q to a contraction of 2.9% and the mere 0.2% rise in personal consumption expenditures during May on top of no change in April.

Copyright 2014, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


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