Some Discouraging Data at Week’s End
January 11, 2013
Japan reported a JPY 222 billion unadjusted current account deficit for November and a 4.2% on-year decline in exports. There was a customs clearance trade deficit of JPY 751 billion in the first twenty days of December. The seasonally adjusted current account surplus was 45% smaller at JPY 226 billion in November than October’s surplus.
Chinese CPI inflation accelerated more than anticipated in December to a 7-month high of 2.5% from 2.0% in the year to November. Consumer prices rose by a hefty 0.8% on month. PPI deflation of 1.9% was the smallest on-year drop since May.
Industrial production in India was 0.1% lower than a year earlier in November, defying hopes for a 0.7% increase.
British industrial production rose just 0.3% in November, about a third as much as forecast. Factory output fell 0.3%. In September-November, industrial production slumped 1.9% from the previous three months and by 2.9% on year, while manufacturing output declined 0.7% versus June-August and by 1.9% on year.
Industrial production in Spain was 7.2% weaker than a year earlier in November.
Swiss consumer prices posted yet another on-year drop. In December, such fell 0.2% from November and 0.4% from the end of 2011.
Czech retail sales declined 1.8% on year in November. Analysts were looking for zero change.
The yen touched new peaks of 89.365 per dollar and 118.62 per euro overnight.
Since Thursday’s close, the dollar has advanced 0.6% against the kiwi, 0.3% versus the Swissie and Australian dollar, 0.2% relative to the yen and sterling and 0.1% against the euro. The loonie is unchanged, and the yuan has moved 0.2% higher.
Japan’s Nikkei soared further, rising 1.4%. In other equity markets, however, stocks in China slumped 1.9% in reaction to the worse-than-expected price data, 0.5% in South Korea, 0.4% in Hong Kong, and 0.3% in Australia, Singapore, and Indonesia. In Europe, share prices are down by 0.5% in Italy and 0.3% in France, while the German Dax, British Ftse, and Spanish IBEX have edged 0.1% higher.
Oil and gold prices have dropped by 0.6% and 0.5% to $93.27 per barrel and $1669.90 per troy ounce.
The 10-year British gilt yields is four basis points lower. The comparable Japanese sovereign debt yield dipped a basis point, while the German bund is steady.
Italy conducted a successful 3-year debt auction that generated a sub-2% yield.
The new Japanese cabinet headed by Shinzo Abe approved a 20 trillion yen stimulus package that includes 10.3 trillion yen of extra spending.
Japanese stock and bond transactions last month generated a 299 billion yen net capital inflow. Foreigners bought JPY 1.496 trillion of Japanese equities.
Moody’s reduced its sovereign debt rating for Cyprus by three grades to Caa3, bringing the drop since last March to nine notches in all.
Following Bank Indonesia, the Bank of England, and the ECB, the Central Reserve Bank became the fourth monetary authority on Thursday to leave its key interest rate unchanged, and the Bank of Korea did the same today.
- Peru’s interest rate has been at 4.25% since May 2011.
- The Bank of Korea’s 7-day repo rate has been at 2.75% since a 25-basis point cut in October.
Japan’s economy watchers index improved much more than forecast in December, rising to a reading of 45.8 from November’s 40.0 and October’s 39.0, which was the weakest score since May 2011. The outlook component leaped to a reading of 51.0 from 41.9 in November. Bank lending in Japan, not including trust accounts, were 1.4% higher than a year before in December. Such rose 1.2% on year in the fourth quarter after a gain of 1.1% between 3Q11 and 3Q12.
Turkey recorded a considerably wider current account deficit of $4.48 billion in November after a $1.92 billion shortfall in October.
France posted an unchanged EUR 2.9 billion current account deficit in November.
Portuguese consumer prices were flat on month and 1.9% higher on year in December, matching November’s 12-month pace of increase. Romanian CPI inflation accelerated to 5.0% in December from 4.6% in November. Dutch industrial production rose 1.2% in the year to November. Sweden’s jobless rate was 4.8% last month.
U.S. and Canadian trade data are due today. Last month’s U.S. federal budget figures arrive, as does the latest monthly estimate of British GDP from the National Institutes of Economic and Social Research.
Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Bank of Korea, Japanese current account, Yen