Gap Has Narrowed Between Manufacturing in the United States and Euro Area

December 3, 2012

The U.S. purchasing managers index dropped 2.2 points to its weakest reading since July 2009.  Only a marginal decline was forecast.  The sub-indices for new business, jobs, and prices fell respectively by 3.9, 3.7 and 2.5 points.  At 49.5 in November, the total PMI has moved back under the 50 no-change level for the first time in three months but the fourth time in the last half year.

Euroland’s factory PMI, which had initially not been expected to improve this month, instead climbed 0.8 points to 46.2.  The indices for Germany and France also rose by 0.8 points, while those for Austria, Spain and Ireland went up by 4.5 points, 1.8 points, and 0.3 points.  The Irish reading exceeded the 50 level for the ninth consecutive month, but all other national scores in the euro area were below that threshold including Greece with 41.8. 

The differential between the U.S. and Euroland manufacturing PMI scores fell to 3.3 in November, a 16-month low, from a 5-month high of 6.1 in October.  The average value of EUR/USD last month was similar to its mean values in the previous two months.

Mfg PMIs U.S. Euroland Spread EUR/USD
Feb 2008 47.6 52.3 -4.7 1.475
March 48.3 52.0 -3.7 1.553
April 48.8 50.7 -1.9 1.574
May 49.8 50.6 -0.8 1.555
June 50.0 49.2 +0.8 1.557
July 49.2 47.4 +1.8 1.577
August 44.8 47.6 -2.8 1.497
September 44.8 45.0 -0.2 1.437
October 38.9 41.1 -2.2 1.331
November 36.5 35.6 +0.9 1.268
December 33.1 33.9 -0.8 1.351
Jan 2009 34.9 34.4 +0.5 1.326
February 35.6 33.5 +2.1 1.303
March 36.0 33.9 +2.1 1.306
April 39.8 36.8 +3.0 1.318
May 42.0 40.7 +1.3 1.365
June 45.8 42.6 +3.2 1.401
July 49.2 46.3 +2.9 1.409
August 53.5 48.2 +5.3 1.426
September 54.2 49.3 +4.9 1.455
October 53.9 50.7 +3.2 1.489
November 54.3 51.2 +3.1 1.491
December 55.8 51.6 +4.2 1.459
Jan 2010 56.7 52.4 +4.3 1.409
February 55.8 54.2 +3.6 1.368
March 59.3 56.6 +2.7 1.356
April 59.0 57.6 +1.4 1.342
May 58.8 55.8 +3.0 1.255
June 56.0 55.6 +0.4 1.220
July 55.7 56.7 -1.0 1.278
August 57.4 55.1 +2.3 1.288
September 56.4 53.7 +2.7 1.308
October 57.0 54.6 +2.4 1.389
November 58.0 55.3 +2.7 1.368
December 57.3 57.1 +0.2 1.323
Jan 2011 59.9 57.3 +2.6 1.337
February 59.8 59.0 +0.8 1.365
March 59.7 57.5 + 1.7 1.400
April 59.7 58.0 +1.7 1.445
May 54.2 54.6 -0.4 1.433
June 55.8 52.0 +3.8 1.438
July 51.4 50.4 +1.0 1.423
August 52.5 49.0 +3.5 1.435
September 52.5 48.5 +4.0 1.377
October 51.8 47.1 +4.7 1.371
November 52.2 46.4 +5.8 1.356
December 53.1 46.9 +6.2 1.316
January 54.1 48.8 +5.3 1.290
February 52.4 49.0 +3.4 1.323
March 53.4 47.7 +5.7 1.320
April 54.8 45.9 +8.9 1.315
May 53.5 45.1 +8.4 1.280
June 49.7 45.1 +4.6 1.254
July 49.8 44.0 +5.8 1.230
August 49.6 45.1 +4.5 1.255
September 51.5 46.1 +5.4 1.286
October 51.7 45.4 +6.1 1.297
November 49.5 46.2 +3.3 1.283

Copyright 2012, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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