Deeper Analysis
North American Data Run-Down
January 19, 2012
U.S. inflation is benign. Total U.S. consumer prices slid 0.4% at an annualized rate in the final quarter of 2011, cutting on-year inflation to 3.0% in December from 3.9% in September. Core consumer prices increased 2.2% between end-2010 and end-2011. That represents a slight acceleration from 1.8% between end-2009 and end-2010. Core consumer prices, which […] More
Central Bank Watch
South African Monetary Policy Stance Left Unchanged
January 19, 2012
A statement from the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee left its repurchase rate at 5.5%, as it had done at its six previous meetings. There has not yet been any rate hike, but the last reduction was implemented 14 months ago. That cut of 50 basis points culminated a series of nine reductions […] More
Central Bank Watch
First Filipino Interest Rate Cut Since July 2009
January 19, 2012
The Monetary Board at Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut its key overnight borrowing and lending rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% and 6.25%, respectively. A statement from central bank officials first projected that CPI inflation this year would settled into the lower half of a 3-5% target range and also observed that "the Euro […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
More Successful Sovereign Debt Auctions in Euro Area
January 19, 2012
Spain was able to auction EUR 6.6 billion of sovereign debt, about 50% more than planned, while a French auction fetched a lower yield. The dollar fell 0.4% against the Swiss franc and euro. The euro got as high as $1.2919 versus a 17-month low of $1.2624 last Friday. The franc is closer to testing […] More
Central Bank Watch
Brazil Gets a Fourth Rate Cut
January 18, 2012
Copom, the policymaking committee of the Bank of Brazil, cut the Selic central bank interest rate by 50 basis points to 10.5%. This unanimously decided move follows similar half-percentage point reductions announced last August 31, October 19, and November 30. Slightly more than half of the 375 basis points of tightening from April 2010 through […] More
Deeper Analysis
Today’s U.S. Data
January 18, 2012
Treasury international capital (TIC) figures for November produced a more-than-fourfold increase in foreign net purchases of U.S. securities, 93% of which consisted of Treasury securities. The strength of this demand produced solid net capital inflows on all three definitions. The narrow long-term inflow jumped to $58.8 billion from $8.3 billion in October. The long-term flow […] More
Central Bank Watch
Canadian Monetary Policy Report – Highlights
January 18, 2012
The quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) released today reiterates points made in yesterday’s announcement of an unchanged 1.0% overnight money rate target such as 1) projected GDP growth of 2.4% in 2011, 2.0% in 2012, and 2.8% next year; 2) assertions that the global economy has deteriorated and uncertainty has increased since the previous MPR […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Crowded Calendar of U.S. Data Releases
January 18, 2012
The dollar declined overnight by 0.7% against the kiwi, 0.5% against the Swissie and euro, and 0.2% versus the Australian dollar, loonie, and sterling. The yen and yuan are unchanged against the greenback. Tomorrow begins a week-long celebration of the Chinese Lunar New Year to usher in the Year of the Dragon. Special importance is […] More
Larry's Blog
An Awful Way to Pick Presidential Candidates
January 17, 2012
The selection process for U.S. presidential nominees does a great disservice to voters and aspiring candidates. The use of state primaries was developed to make the choice more democratic but in practice has made it less so than when the main vetting of candidates was done by party professionals. In the Iowa caucus, Mitt Romney […] More
Central Bank Watch
No Policy Change from Bank of Canada
January 17, 2012
Canada’s 1.0% overnight money rate target since September 2010 was left unchanged again as analysts expected. In the new statement, policymakers reiterated that "there is considerable monetary policy stimulus in Canada." New quarterly macroeconomic forecasts are modestly modified from those presented in October, but the gist of the forecast remains the same. Economic growth will […] More
