Next Week

August 27, 2010

The last week of the summer currency market season begins with a British bank holiday on Monday and ends Friday with an early closure of the U.S. Treasury market for the Labor Day holiday.  Since the Memorial Day start of this period, the dollar has declined 6.3% against the yen and 3.6% versus the euro.

The Swedish Riksbank is expected to engineer a second 25-basis point rate hike on Thursday.  Central banks in Euroland, Indonesia, and Malaysia also have scheduled interest rate policy meeting, but none are likely to change their stance.  New quarterly staff forecasts will be unveiled by the ECB, and the Fed will release minutes of the last FOMC meeting.

Purchasing manager surveys get released this week for various and sundry economies.  The manufacturing indices are due Wednesday, and the service-sector measures arrive on Friday.  Britain’s construction PMI gets reported on Thursday.

The list of scheduled U.S. data is led by Friday’s monthly labor force report, which is expected show an employment drop of 100-150K.  Other releases in the week will be the ADP estimate for private-sector jobs, the Dallas and New York Fed manufacturing indices, the Case-Shiller house price index, consumer confidence, construction spending, factory orders, pending home sales, monthly chain store sales, quarterly productivity and unit wage costs, personal income and spending and a bunch of weekly measures from jobless insurance claims to mortgage applications, chain store sales, energy inventories, and consumer confidence.

Japan will be releasing retail sales, housing starts construction orders, industrial production, small business sentiment, the monetary base, and the Ministry of Finance’s quarterly survey of businesses.

Sentiment measures from Euroland, including consumer confidence and industrial confidence, will be reported on Monday.  Other figures in the week are the preliminary CPI estimate, unemployment, revised 2Q GDP growth, producer prices and retail sales.  The German labor market figures always draw interest.  Italy, Belgium and Spain release national consumer price data.  Italian producer prices are reported, too, and is French unemployment.

This will be a lean week for British data — just consumer confidence, growth in money and credit, mortgage approvals, and the Hometrack house price index.

In Switzerland, investors will learn the latest results for the CPI, GDP, and UBS consumption indicator. Norwegian retail sales are due, too.  Further east and south, Poland and Romania report GDP, and Hungary releases producer prices.

The quarterly Canadian current account arrives on Monday, followed by June and second-quarter GDP on Tuesday.

Australia has several scheduled indicator releases:  private credit, retail sales, corporate profits, the current account and trade balance, and building approvals.  New Zealand chimes in with business confidence and trade data.  Turkey reports both the CPI and PPI as well as trade numbers, while South Africa announces auto sales, trade figures, money and credit growth, and its budget.

Like Canada, India, South Korea and Brazil report quarterly GDP.  Hong Kong retail sales, South Korean industrial production, and Mexican consumer confidence arrive as well.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


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