Next Week

April 9, 2010

In the second week of April, British political parties unveil their election manifestos,  the U.S. and Canada report trade data, the Bank of Japan holds a quarterly Branch Managers meeting, and Euroland releases industrial production.  On the whole, it will not be a particularly important week for data or central bank policy meetings.  Of latter, just a few are planned — in Chile, Mexico and Turkey — and none is expected to change policy.  Don’t be surprised if China raises interest rates, however.  The Fed beige book arrives, and Bernanke, Tarullo, Lacker, and Lockhart have speaking engagements.  The Bank of Japan releases minutes of its March meeting and a regional economic survey, while the ECB publishes its monthly Bulletin.

China will be in the limelight.  U.S. Treasury Secretary pays a visit to Hong Kong and Beijing, and China releases quarterly GDP as well as monthly trades, consumer prices, money and credit growth, producer prices, fixed asset investment, retail sales and industrial production.  Speculation has mounted that Beijing may be poised to raise interest rates or let the yuan begin to appreciate against the dollar as such did during the three years to July 2008.

The U.S. Treasury releases monthly budget figures and data on capital flows into and out of the United States.  Other scheduled U.S. statistics are import prices, business inventories, industrial production housing starts, the NFIB and HAHB indices, the New York and Philadelphia Fed indices, and the University of Michigan’s index on consumer confidence.  The IBD/TIPP index of optimism is also scheduled, as are the usual weekly reports on jobless claims, consumer confidence, chain store sales, mortgage applications, and energy inventories.

From Euroland, investors will get to see industrial production, trade data, and final consumer price numbers including a gauge of core inflation.  Germany, France, Spain and Italy, the group’s big four, each report national CPI data.  German wholesale turnover, the French current account, and Italian industrial output and trades also arrive.

Britain’s slate of data includes trade figures, two house price measures — the RICs barometer and the DCLG index — and same store retail sales compiled by the British Retail Consortium.  The main focus will be politics, however, especially how the party manifestos are perceived and the ebb and flow of pre-election opinion polls.  Some other West European scheduled statistics are Swedish consumer prices and unemployment, Norwegian trades, and Swiss producer prices and import prices.  Further to the east, Romania and Hungary announce consumer prices, the Czech Republic releases the PPI and current account, Poland also reports its current account, and Russia reports industrial output.

The focus in Japan will be upon the central bank, which reports money and credit growth.  Reuters announces the results of its monthly Tankan simulation, and Governor Shirakawa speaks both before and after the branch managers meeting.

Canada has several indicators that are due: housing starts, home prices, existing home sales, auto sales, and factory sales.  In South America, Brazil releases retail sales, Peru reports GDP and unemployment, and Argentina unveils its latest CPI and PPI results.

Australia will be releasing both business sentiment and consumer confidence, as well as home financing statistics.  New Zealand announces retail sales and its purchasing manager survey results.  South African retail sales also arrive, as do figures for Turkish consumer confidence, unemployment and the current account.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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