Bank of Japan Business Survey Not As Poor As Feared
December 13, 2009
The Bank of Japan survey of businesses, known as the Tankan, depicted better conditions now than last September, but projected large reduction in sales, earnings, and business spending this fiscal year underscore the fragility of the outlook following Japan’s worst postwar recession. Diffusion indices in the table below were derived by subtracting the percent of respondents calling business conditions “unfavorable” from the percent characterizing such as “favorable.” The abbreviations for big manufacturers and big non-manufacturers are Bm and Bnm, while Sm and Snm designate small-sized manufacturers and non-manufacturers. “All” signifies all big, medium, and small firms in the survey. The suffix “a” stands for actual, and “f” signifies a forecast of the diffusion index made three months earlier. All classifications were less negative in December than September and June, and the reading of minus 24 for large manufacturers, while more negative than predicted three months ago, was also less negative than analysts had been projecting last week. Earnings, sales and planned investment in the fiscal year to March 2010 are expected to be significantly lower than last fiscal year. For large manufacturers, such are expected to fall by 34.7%, 14.5%, and 28.2%. The drop for sales and investment spending results were more negative than survey participants had been predicting in September, but they revised the drop in profits downward.
| Bm | Bnm | Sm | Snm | All | |
| Dec 1998 | -49 | -39 | -56 | -43 | |
| Dec 1999 | -17 | -19 | -32 | -28 | |
| Dec 2000 | 10 | -10 | -16 | -23 | |
| Dec 2001 | -38 | -22 | -49 | -39 | -40 |
| Dec 2002 | -9 | -16 | -33 | -36 | -28 |
| Dec 2003 | 11 | -9 | -13 | -28 | -15 |
| Dec 2004 | 22 | 11 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| Dec 2005 | 21 | 17 | 7 | -17 | 5 |
| Dec 2006 | 25 | 22 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
| Dec 2007 | 19 | 16 | 2 | -12 | 2 |
| Mar 2008 | 11 | 12 | -6 | -15 | -4 |
| Jun 2008 | 5 | 10 | -10 | -20 | -7 |
| Sep 2008 | -3 | 1 | -17 | -24 | -14 |
| Dec 2008 | -24 | -9 | -29 | -29 | -24 |
| Mar 2009 | -58 | -31 | -57 | -42 | -46 |
| Jun 2009 | -48 | -29 | -57 | -44 | -45 |
| Sep 2009 | -33 | -24 | -52 | -39 | -38 |
| Dec 2009f | -21 | -17 | -44 | -40 | -34 |
| Dec 2009a | -24 | -22 | -40 | -35 | -32 |
| Mar 2010f | -18 | -19 | -42 | -41 | -34 |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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