Next Week

October 30, 2009

The U.S. turns its clocks back one hour to standard time this weekend.  Some markets but no major ones will be shut Monday for All Souls’ Day, and Japan is closed Tuesday for National Culture Day.  Central bank meetings will be held in the United States, Euroland, Britain, Indonesia, Hong Kong, The Philippines, Romania, Peru, Czech Republic, Australia and Iceland.  Australia and Iceland are the only significant candidates for a rate change.  Australia is expected to implement a second rate hike, while another cut in Iceland is quite possible.  The Bank of England will keep its 0.5% rate target but may announce plans to buy additional gilts, lest that program stop.  The Bank of Japan and Swedish Riksbank will publish minutes from previous policy meetings, and the Reserve Bank of Australia will release a Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement.  The release of monthly PMIs scores, the U.S. labor force survey, British industrial production, and retail sales figures for the euro area are the most significant data releases.  Finance Ministers from the Group of Twenty meet on Thursday.

Preliminary PMI readings for Euroland, Germany, and France have already been published and will be revised. Japan has already released its manufacturing index.  Other countries releasing factory PMIs include Taiwan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Australia, Britain, Greece, Italy, Spain, the Czech Republic, China, Ireland, Poland, Turkey, India, Russia, South Africa, Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, and Britain.  Japan, Australia, Euroland, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Ireland, India, Russia, Hong Kong, and the United States also report service-sector purchasing manager indices, and Britain will release both a services PMI and a construction sector PMI.

Scheduled U.S. data besides Friday’s labor force report and PMIs include construction spending, light vehicle sales, pending home sales, ADP private jobs, consumer credit, wholesale inventories, and the usual weekly stuff like mortgage applications, energy inventories, chain store sales, consumer confidence, and jobless claims.  Tarullo, Evans, and Duke from the Fed will be speaking.  Tuesday is an off-year election day.  Key votes with national implications are for the governors of Virginia and New Jersey and mayor of New York City.

From the euro area, investors will receive news on producer prices as well as the PMIs  and retail sales.  Germany reports industrial orders, France announces trade and budget data, and the Netherlands releases consumer prices.  Trichet, Weber, Mersch, Paramo, and Constancio from the ECB will be speaking.

Many British statistics are due in addition to the PMIs: Nationwide’s gauge of consumer confidence, industrial production, car sales, producer prices, shop prices, the Hometrack and Halifax house price indices, and an estimate of monthly GDP growth from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.  Swiss consumer prices and Norwegian industrial output are also on the week’s data calendar.  Czech and Hungarian industrial production figures will be reported

Wage earnings, auto sales, the private consumption index, monetary base, and index of leading economic indicators are on Japan’s slate, and BOJ Governor Shirakwa speaks publicly.  A sampling of other Asian data releases includes Indonesian trades and consumer prices, Thai and Taiwanese consumer prices, South Korean, Indian and Malaysian trade figures, and Hong Kong retail sales.

Canadian monthly labor statistics will be reported 90 minutes before the U.S. labor force survey on Friday.  Canada also releases building permits and the IVEY PMI index next week.  Peru and Chile release consumer prices, and Mexico reports consumer confidence.

Australia announces house prices, retail sales, building approvals, and trade figures, while New Zealand unemployment and quarterly labor costs get reported.  South African reserves and auto sales are due, and so are Turkish consumer and wholesale prices.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


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