Archive for April 2009

U.S. GDP Worse Than Expected

April 29, 2009

U.S. real GDP sank 6.1% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate even though personal consumption made a positive contribution of 1.5 percentage points after depressing the fourth-quarter growth rate by 3 percentage points.  Here are some highlights of today’s report. GDP fell 6.2% saar over the past two quarters, the weakest two-quarter slide since -7.4% […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank Negara Malaysia Monetary Policy Not Changed

April 29, 2009

Malaysia’s overnight policy rate will remain at 2.0%, and a statement released by monetary officials opined that policy is now sufficiently accommodative to avoid further rate reductions.  GDP likely contracted last quarter but will do better in 2H09.  Inflation is down to 3.5% and projected to moderate additionally.  The OPR was cut by 25 basis […] More

Central Bank Watch

National Bank of Poland Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

April 29, 2009

Poland’s key interest rate remains at 3.75% as analysts expected.  From a peak of 6.0% from June 25th to November 26th, such had earlier been reduced by 25 basis points in November, 75 bps in December and January, and 25 bps in February and March.  However, the scope for easing monetary policy has lately been […] More

Central Bank Watch

State Bank of Vietnam Leaves Key Rate Unchanged

April 29, 2009

Vietnam’s central bank as expected left its refinancing and discount rates unchanged at 7% and 5%, respectively.  They were cut by 100 basis points earlier this month and are down from peaks in June-October of 15% and 13%.  Aside from this month’s earlier reduction, the rates were cut by 100 basis points in October, by […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Overnight Developments Abroad: Focus on Banks and Flu

April 29, 2009

Bloomberg claims that stress test results require six of the nineteen banks to increase their capital. Germany became the eighth country with a case of swine flu.  Obama asking for $1.5 billion to counteract swine flu. Japan closed for Showa Day holiday.  Three more golden week closures set for next Monday through Wednesday. Vietnam’s central […] More

Bonds and Stocks

The Elusive Nature of Confidence

April 28, 2009

I’m not prepared to say that April is really busting out all over?  Sure, U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 39.2, about ten points higher than street forecasts.  The 12-month drop in U.S. housing prices finally declined according to the Case-Shiller indices.  In Britain, the CBI business group reported a swing in the distributive trades index […] More

Currency Markets in the News

German Inflation

April 28, 2009

German consumer prices rose marginally on a seasonally adjusted basis in April and by 0.7% from a year earlier.  The 12-month advance was above March’s 0.5% but below February’s 1.0%.  The April results were about as expected but clearly below the ECB’s definition of stable prices being synonymous with a 12-month increase of less than […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Overnight Developments Abroad: Stress Tests and Swine Flu Spread Fear

April 28, 2009

The World Health Organization declared the swine flu epidemic uncontainable. The Wall Street Journal claims the government has asked Bank of America and Citigroup to raise more capital based on stress test results.  Bank shares lead a decline in stock markets.  The Nikkei fell 2.7%, and the German Dax, Paris Cac, and British Ftse are […] More

Currency Markets in the News

A Widely Shared World Recession

April 27, 2009

Newly revised IMF forecasts project a 1.3% contraction of world GDP in 2009 followed by a 1.9% recovery in 2010.  Growth over the four years to 2010 amounts to just 2.2% per annum in spite of a 5.2% rise of GDP in the first year of that period.  All of the net growth in between […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Israel Policy Rate Left at 0.5%

April 27, 2009

After reducing its key rate from 4.25% to 0.50% in eight steps from October to March, Israeli monetary policy is anchored around the purchase of government bonds, and the key short-term rate appears to have hit its effective low.  The Bank of Israel, as expected, did not cut such further today. A statement from the […] More

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