Next Week

December 6, 2008

The week ahead has a crowded calendar of data releases and lower-tier central bank interest rate meetings. As the holidays and end of 2008 approach, book-closing considerations will increasingly influence trading. Many countries will be released trade figures, which will update how recessionary forces are getting spread widely through shrinking commerce between countries. Although a breakdown in financial market functionality triggered this global recession, the failure this decade to move complete the Doha round of multilateral trade talks and the loss of fast-track U.S. negotiating will prolong the slump and flatten any return to eventual positive growth. A number of economies also are reporting industrial production.

Led by weaker-than-previously-assumed business investment, Japanese 3Q GDP growth is likely to be revised to a larger drop from -0.4% saar reported last month. Japan will also report machinery orders, the economy watchers’ index, the indices of leading and coincident indicators, money and credit growth, trade and current account figures, new bankruptcies, corporate goods prices and consumer confidence.

British data are due on trade, producer prices, industrial production, house prices, same store sales from the BRC, monthly GDP, and the quarterly survey of expected inflation.

From Euroland, investors will see industrial production and investor sentiment. Italy releases GDP and industrial output. France also releases industrial production plus business sentiment and trade. German current account, industrial output, and ZEW index of investor sentiment arrive. Spanish CPI is due.

From Switzerland comes consumer prices and labor statistics. From Scandinavia will come Swedish industrial output, unemployment, and the economy’s activity index and Norwegian consumer prices.

Canada will report productivity, trade flows, home prices, capacity utilization, auto sales, and productivity.

Australia releases job ads, home loans, consumer confidence, business sentiment and conditions, and most importantly the monthly labor report including employment and unemployment.

Many Chinese figures arrive such as trade, money and credit growth, trade, retail sales and both consumer and producer prices. India reports industrial production.

The United States reports its monthly federal budget, trade figures, import prices, retail sales, inventories, pending home sales, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey results. Weekly chain store sales (because of the season) and jobless claims (because such provide very timely information on the recession) will attract considerable investor interest.

Rate cuts, mostly of 50 basis points, are expected on Tuesday from the Bank of Canada to 1.75%, on Wednesday from the Bank of Korea to 3.5%, and on Thursday from the Swiss National Bank to 0.5%, the Reserve Bank of South Africa to 11.5%, and Taiwan’s central bank to 2.25%. In South America, the central banks of Chile, Peru, and Brazil also hold policy meetings in the coming week. Many central bankers have scheduled speaking engagements, including, Trichet, Kohn, Fisher, Notwotny, Liikanen, Smaghi, Sentance, Stark, and Tumpel-Gugerell.



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