Scant Change in U.S. Minus Ezone Services PMI Differential Last Month

August 4, 2010

The United States and Euroland each recorded decent expansion in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing as the third quarter got under way.  In services, the U.S. index rose a half point to 54.3, while the euro area reading of 55.8 was 0.3 points above the level in June.  In manufacturing data reported on Monday, the U.S. […] More

U.S. Economic Growth: Reflections

June 25, 2010

Revised U.S. GDP expanded 2.7% at an annualized rate (saar) last quarter and by a similar 2.4% between 1Q09 and 1Q10.  Although not as good as preliminary indications, growth in the United States has not been bad for an advanced economy.  GDP last quarter increased only 0.8% saar in Euroland and by 1.2% in Britain.  […] More

Canadian and U.S. Trade Balances Weakened in March on Energy

May 12, 2010

Because the United States and Canada do so much trade with one another, their trade balances often move in opposite directions.  That did not happen in March, however.  The U.S. goods and services deficit widened 2.5% to $40.4 billion, and the merchandise trade shortfall climbed 3.5% to $52.9 billion. Canada’s trade surplus plunged 78.0% to […] More

Marginal Narrowing of U.S. Minus Euroland Factory PMI Spread

May 3, 2010

Activity in manufacturing was robust last month in both the United States and euro area according to their respective purchasing manager surveys.  In a scale where readings above 50 connote increasing speeds of expansion, the United States reported a score of 60.4, 0.8 points better than in March, and Euroland’s score improved a full point […] More

A Benign Market Environment for Economic Recovery

April 26, 2010

Yes, you read my headline correctly.  This certainly has not been true about Greece, and financial markets in other peripheral members of the common currency bloc are at risk.  But the statement does fit the situations pretty well for key advanced economies such as the United States, Germany, Britain, and Japan. At noontime in New […] More

U.S. and Canadian Latest Trends in Trade

April 13, 2010

The U.S. recorded a $39.7 billion goods and services trade deficit in February, which exceeded expectations yet again.  The deficit in December-February averaged $38.9 billion per month, 43.8% wider than in the second quarter of 2009.  If the dollar moved in lockstep with relative economic growth, it would be a chronically appreciating currency because U.S. […] More

U.S. Capital Flows and the Dollar

March 15, 2010

According to Treasury Department data released today, net U.S. capital inflows contracted abruptly in January, a month that saw the dollar advance by 3.2% against the euro, 2.6% against the Swiss franc, and 1.1% relative to sterling.  Against commodity-sensitive currencies, the dollar appreciated 3.6% against the kiwi, 2.1% against the Canadian dollar and 1.6% against […] More

Expected Long-Term Economic Growth in Selected Advanced Economies

March 8, 2010

This is the time of year when forecasters first wheel out projections for the next calendar year.  Since over nine months remain before the period begins and more than 21 months remain before it ends, the forecasts are good proxies for estimates of long-term trend growth.  One sense of consensus forecasts is published each month […] More

Euro Area PMI-Services Advantage Versus United States Lessened in December

January 6, 2010

The U.S. services purchasing managers index climbed 1.4 points to 50.1 in December, largely on gains of 3.8 points in production and 2.4 points in jobs.  Euroland’s comparable index increased just 0.6 points to 53.6, trimming the spread between the two series to minus 3.5 points from minus 4.3 points in November.  In one important […] More