Day After Christmas Remains Subdued
December 26, 2025
The Christmas holiday has been extended in many countries, including most of Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Hong Kong and Indonesia. Japan was open both Thursday and Friday. Although President Trump has authorized that today will be a federal holiday this year, most banks plan to be open, and the U.S. stock exchange will be observing normal hours.
Market momentum remains very light amid the scarcity of market participants and with only a scattering of data announcements.
Compared to closing time on Wednesday, the dollar is 0.3% firmer against the yen by barely changed against other key currencies. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are unchanged. Prices for Bitcoin and gold, respectively up 1.6% and 0.8%, picked up where they left off before the break. The cost of oil has risen but just marginally and so remains depressed at around $58.5 per barrel. Equities have risen 0.8% in Japan, 1.0% in Pakistan, and 0.5% in India but fell by 0.4% in India and 0.2% in Vietnam. U.S. stock futures are just marking time.
Japan did release a number of economic statistics.
- Corporate service price inflation in November held steady at October’s 3-month low of 2.7%.
- Core consumer price inflation in Tokyo fell 0.5 percentage points to a 10-month low of 2.3% in December. Note that Japan does included energy in its definition of core inflation. Energy dropped 0.9% on month and 3.4% on year, and if energy as well as perishable food are omitted, inflation among the remaining items collectively slid to an 8-month low of 2.6%. CPI figures for Tokyo get reported about 3 weeks ahead of national statistics and are a useful leading indicator of the nationwide pace.
- Industrial production sank back 2.6% in November, marking the weakest monthly change in 22 months, and was also 2.1% lower than a year earlier. Despite monthly volatility, the overall trend has been generally flat this year.
- Japanese retail sales rose 0.6% on month and 1.0% on year in November, aligning close to expectations.
- Joblessness in November printed at 2.6% for a fourth straight month and at either 2.5% or 2.6% for the ninth time in ten months.
- Housing starts fell 8.5% year-on-year in November. Alternatively, construction orders were 9.5% higher than a year earlier.
Turkish business confidence held steady this month, matching its level in both October and November.
Armenian producer price inflation accelerated a full percentage point to an 18-month high of 6.2% last month.
the 12-month rate of increase of industrial production in Singapore halved to 14.2% in November after October’s 25-year high.
Monetary officials at the Central Bank of Egypt implemented their fifth interest rate cut of 2025 and signaled that more downward moves next year will be likely. The new main operating rate of 20.5% will be flanked by an overnight lending rate of 21.0% and an overnight deposit rate of 20.0%. Each is a full percentage point lower than previously, and the cumulative decline since April amounts to 725 basis points. Inflation is targeted at 7% within a 5-9% corridor, and officials anticipate a return to target by this time next year. Several risks to projected growth of around 5% within the desired restoration of in-target inflation among which are relatively persistent non-food inflation, the impact of pro-growth fiscal policy, and continuing global geopolitical tensions. CPI inflation in Egypt peaked in September 2023 at 38.0% and averaged 28.3% in 2024 before falling to a 42-month low of 11.7% this past September and, more recently, printing at 12.3% last month.
Copyright 2025, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: Central Bank of Egypt, Japanese corporate service prices and Tokyo CPI, Japanese industrial production and retail sales
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