Second Quarter 2023 in Figures
June 30, 2023
Stickier inflation than elsewhere in the U.K., where the CPI remained at 8.7% in May, was reflected in a bigger increase during 2Q in long-term interest rates as well as a more aggressive 75-basis point Bank of England rate hike. In a quarter when share prices rebounded in other industrialized economies, the British Ftse closed 1.6% lower on June 30th than on March 31st, but sterling outperformed all the other currencies shown in the table below.
Japan has also marched to a different beat despite a change of BOJ governor for the first time in a decade. The new central bank leadership has for now adhered strictly to the plan established by its predecessor, sending the yen (down 8.3% against the dollar) and the Nikkei-225 stock market index (up 18.3%) in diametrically opposite trajectories during the quarter. It took the DJIA about 25 years to recover its pre-depression high, but Japan’s stock market a third of a century after peaking at the end of 1989 still needs to rise 15% above its June and year-to-date high to accomplish an analogous goal. As for the yen, it closed out June just fractionally above the 145-146 per dollar range at which officials supported the currency early last autumn, and predictably a new Finance Ministry Vice Governor for International Affairs warned market participants late in the quarter that they are prepared to intervene again is yen weakness persists.
Oil and gold prices fell 6.6% and 2.8% during the quarter. Alternatively, the price of Bitcoin tokens went up 7.5%.
| 10-Yr Yield | 03/31/23 | 06/30/23 | 2Q Change |
| U.S. | 3.47% | 3.82% | +35 Basis Points |
| Germany | 2.29% | 2.39% | +10 |
| Japan | 0.20% | 0.39% | +19 |
| U.K. | 3.48% | 4.38% | +90 |
| Canada | 2.90% | 3.26% | +36 |
| Switzerland | 1.15% | 0.88% | -27 |
| CB Policy Rate | 03/31/23 | 06/30/23 | 2Q Change |
| Fed funds target | 4.75/5.00% | 5.00/5.25% | +25 Basis Points |
| ECB refi rate | 3.50% | 4.00% | +50 |
| BOJ policy rate | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 4.25% | 5.00% | +75 |
| Swiss 3M Libor | 1.50% | 1.75% | +25 |
| FX | 03/31/23 | 06/30/23 | 2Q Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.0841 | 1.0910 | -0.6% |
| USD/JPY | 132.36 | 144.29 | +9.0% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9150 | 0.8951 | -2.2% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2329 | 1.2780 | -3.5% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6684 | 0.6661 | +0.3% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6253 | 0.6138 | +1.9% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3515 | 1.3247 | -2.0% |
| USD/CNY | 6.8688 | 7.2535 | +5.6% |
| Equities | 03/31/23 | 06/30/23 | 2Q Change |
| S&P 500 | 4169 | 4454 | +6.8% |
| Nasdaq | 12222 | 13728 | +12.3% |
| Djia | 33274 | 34408 | +3.4% |
| Dax | 15629 | 16148 | +3.3% |
| Nikkei | 28041 | 33189 | +18.3% |
| Ftse | 7652 | 7532 | -1.6% |
| Canada TSE | 20100 | 20169 | +0.3% |
| Swiss SMI | 11106 | 11280 | +1.6% |
| Commodities | 03/31/23 | 06/30/23 | 2Q Changes |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 75.67 | 70.64 | -6.6% |
| Gold, $ per ounce | 1986.20 | 1929.40 | -2.8% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2023. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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