America Releasing a Lot of Data and Bracing for Holiday Impact on Pandemic

November 25, 2020

Trading was comparatively quiet overnight. The dollar recorded gains of 0.4% against the New Zealand and Australian currencies and also rose 0.2% relative to the loonie and sterling. The euro is down 0.1% on net but not before touching a 12-week high of $1.1929. The dollar is flat against the yen and had slipped 0.2% relative to the peso and yuan and by 0.1% against the Swiss franc.

Today’s crowded pre-Thanksgiving data menu will feature revised quarterly GDP and employment cost index and monthly personal income, spending, and PCE price deflator. Monthly durable goods orders and the revised U. Michigan consumer sentiment index are due as well, and so are figures on new home sales and theĀ  preliminary estimated monthly trade deficit. Weekly jobless insurance claims arrive a day earlier than their typical Thursday announcement. Finally, the Federal Reserve will be publishing minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Earlier today, a 0.3% drop in mortgage applications last week was announced.

New U.S. Covid-19 deaths topped 2000 yesterday, and the total of new cases has topped a million in each of the last two weeks. Although new U.S. cases slipped below 180k yesterday, there is concern that all the travel and family gatherings associated with Thanksgiving could prove to be a super-spreader of the disease.

President-Elect Biden introduced his nominated top foreign policy and national security advisers yesterday. Along with the pick of Janet Yellen to be Treasury Secretary and Ron Klain as White House Chief of Staff, the picks represent an impressive start to the transition and sent the DOW over the 30,000 level on Tuesday.

U.S. stock futures overnight are little changed. Share prices rose 1.1% in New Zealand and 0.6% in Australia but fell 1.2% in China, 0.6% in South Korea, 0.8% in Singapore and 0.5% in Japan. Profit-taking in Europe has depressed stock markets in Europe so far by 0.6% in the U.K., 0.5% in Spain, 0.3% in Germany and 0.1% in France.

10-year German bund, British gilt, and Japanese JGB yields each dipped a basis point overnight, but the price of WTI oil rose another 0.3% and is at an eight-month high.

Japanese corporate service price inflation in October posted an 8-year low of negative 0.6%.

South African consumer price inflation accelerated 0.3 percentage points to a 7-month high of 3.3% last month.

Malaysian CPI inflation was negative in October for an eighth straight month, dipping 0.1 percentage point further to -1.5%.

Spanish producer prices were 4.1% lower in October than a year earlier, marking their 17th consecutive sub-zero reading.

Business sentiment in South Korean manufacturing improved to its best reading this month since April 2012.

Swiss investor confidence climbed 27.7 index points to a 3-month high of 30 in November according to the ZEW expectations index, which has traced a very volatile pattern since August.

Danish retail sales leaped 8.2% on month in October following three straight previous declines. The 13.6% increase compared to October 2019 was the biggest on-year rise in over 20 years.

The number of unemployed French workers receded 56.6 thousand last month but remained 224.4k higher than a year earlier.

Copyright 2020, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.


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