Bigger Spread in June Between U.S. and Euroland’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices
July 1, 2020
The ISM-compiled U.S. purchasing managers index (52.6) and the IHS-compiled Euroland PMI of 47.4 both rose to four-month highs in June. The U.S. index increased 9.5 points, 1.5 points more than did the Ezone PMI, and there was an additional significant attribute to the U.S. widening advantage last month. At 47.4, conditions in Euroland manufacturing merely deteriorated more slowly than in the prior three months, and June extended the streak of months in which conditions deteriorated to 17.
The U.S. purchasing managers index not only reached a 4-month high but in doing so moved above 50 for only the third time in 11 months. Readings of 50 represent the line between deterioration and contraction from improvement and expansion. Moreover, increases in output of 24.1 points to 57.3 and demand of 24.6 points to 56.4 show even sharper rises in those two critical measurements of the manufacturing sector. A separate U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers survey conducted by IHS went up 10.0 points to 49.8, a 4-month high.
One cloud hanging above the solid U.S. advantage in manufacturing vis-a-vis Euroland concerns the euro, which depreciated to its softest monthly average in a year during June. There is a big export component in manufacturing, and the euro’s decline if sustained would enhance Euroland’s price competitiveness.
| Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| Jan 2013 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.330 |
| February | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.334 |
| March | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | 1.295 |
| April | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | 1.301 |
| May | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | 1.299 |
| June | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | 1.319 |
| July | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | 1.309 |
| August | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | 1.331 |
| September | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | 1.335 |
| October | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | 1.364 |
| November | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | 1.349 |
| December | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | 1.370 |
| Jan 2014 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | 1.361 |
| February | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | 1.366 |
| March | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | 1.380 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | 1.380 |
| May | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | 1.374 |
| June | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | 1.360 |
| July | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | 1.354 |
| August | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | 1.332 |
| September | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | 1.290 |
| October | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | 1.268 |
| November | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | 1.247 |
| December | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | 1.232 |
| Jan 2015 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | 1.162 |
| February | 53.3 | 51.0 | +2.3 | 1.135 |
| March | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | 1.083 |
| April | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | 1.081 |
| May | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | 1.116 |
| June | 53.1 | 52.5 | +0.6 | 1.123 |
| July | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | 1.101 |
| August
September October |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
1.114
1.123 1.121 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2017 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2018 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2019 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2020 February March April May June |
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.7 51.7 50.7 51.0 52.8 52.8 49.4 51.7 52.0 53.5 54.5 56.0 57.6 56.8 55.3 55.5 56.7 56.5 59.3 60.2 58.5 58.2 59.3 59.1 60.7 59.3 57.9 58.7 60.0 58.4 60.8 59.5 57.5 58.8 54.3 56.6 54.2 55.3 52.8 52.1 51.7 51.2 49.1 47.8 48.3 48.1 47.4 50.9 50.1 49.1 41.5 43.1 52.6
|
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 53.5 53.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 57.4 58.1 58.5 60.1 60.6 59.6 58.6 56.6 56.2 55.5 54.9 55.1 54.6 53.2 52.0 51.8 51.4 50.5 49.3 47.5 47.9 47.7 47.6 46.5 47.0 45.7 45.9 46.9 46.3 47.9 49.2 44.5 33.4 39.4 47.4
|
-4.4
-4.8 -4.1 -1.5 +0.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 +0.8 -2.3 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.4 +0.8 +2.2 +0.6 -1.4 -1.5 -0.7 -0.1 +1.9 +2.1 0.0 -1.9 -1.3 -0.5 +2.1 +2.7 +1.7 +3.2 +5.1 +3.3 +6.2 +6.3 +5.5 +7.0 +2.9 +6.1 +4.9 +7.8 +4.9 +4.4 +4.1 +4.7 +2.1 +2.1 +2.4 +1.2 +1.1 +3.0 +0.9 +4.6 +8.1 +3.7 +5.2 |
1.076
1.090 1.087 1.111 1.114 1.134 1.130 1.124 1.106 1.120 1.121 1.103 1.078 1.054 1.063 1.064 1.069 1.072 1.106 1.124 1.153 1.182 1.191 1.176 1.174 1.184 1.220 1.234 1.234 1.227 1.181 1.167 1.169 1.155 1.166 1.148 1.136 1.138 1.142 1.135 1.130 1.123 1.118 1.130 1.121 1.112 1.101 1.106 1.105 1.111 1.110 1.091 1.105 1.087 1.091 1.126 |
Copyright 2020, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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