March and First Quarter 2019 in Figures
March 30, 2019
The table below documents changes in key market variables during March and the first quarter of 2019. Sharply reduced sovereign debt yields in both time intervals amidst slowing global growth and lessening inflation were a driving force behind other markets as well. Equities benefited but not nearly as much in March when the U.S. yield curve eventually inverted as in the first two months of this year. A steep rise in the price of oil during the quarter more than reversed a precipitous decline in the final quarter of 2018.
None of the five central bank policy rates included in the table were changed during the quarter, but forward guidance at the ECB and Fed tilted in a more accommodative way. Board members at the Bank of Japan in an increasingly fractious debate over the pros and cons of prolonged implementation of their current policy stance.
In the first quarter, the dollar appreciated against traditional “hard” currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc but declined against other currencies shown in the table. Sterling closed out March above its end-2018 level in spite of weakness in March as it became increasingly obvious that no Brexit plan had majority parliamentary support. The dollar also dipped marginally this month against the yen and Swiss franc. Gold began 2019 below the $1,300 per ounce level, spent February and part of March above that threshold, but closed out the quarter again below $1,300.
| 10-Yr Yield | 03/29/19 | Chg in Mar | Chg in 1Q19 |
| U.S. | 2.41% | -31 Basis Points | -27 Basis Points |
| Germany | -0.07% | -25 | -31 |
| Japan | -0.10% | -7 | -9 |
| U.K. | 0.99% | -31 | -28 |
| Canada | 1.62% | -32 | -34 |
| Switzerland | -0.44% | -14 | -13 |
| CB Policy Rate | 03/29/19 | Chg in Mar | Chg in 1Q19 |
| Fed funds target | 2.25/2.50% | 0 Basis Points | 0 Basis Points |
| ECB deposit rate | -0.40% | 0 | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | -0.10% | 0 | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 0.75% | 0 | 0 |
| Swiss 3M Libor | -1.25/-0.25% | 0 | 0 |
| FX | 03/29/19 | Pct Chg in $ | Pct Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.1217 | +1.4% | +2.0% |
| USD/JPY | 110.82 | -0.6% | +1.1% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9956 | -0.3% | +1.2% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3027 | +1.8% | -2.2% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7100 | -0.1% | -0.8% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6808 | +0.0% | -1.5% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3362 | +1.5% | -2.0% |
| USD/CNY | 6.7121 | +0.3% | -2.4% |
| Equities | 03/29/19 | Chg in Mar | Chg in 1Q |
| S&P 500 | 2834 | +1.7% | +13.0% |
| Nasdaq | 7729 | +2.6% | +16.5% |
| Djia | 25429 | -1.9% | +11.2% |
| Dax | 11526 | +0.1% | +9.2% |
| Nikkei | 21206 | -0.8% | +6.0% |
| Ftse | 7279 | +2.9% | +8.2% |
| Canada TSE | 16119 | +0.7% | +12.5% |
| Swiss SMI | 9478 | +2.0% | +12.4% |
| Commodities | 03/29/19 | Chg in Mar | Chg in 1Q19 |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 60.14 | +5.1% | +32.1% |
| Gold, $ per ounce | 1293.81 | -1.4% | +0.9% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2019. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: foreign exchange, gold and oil, share price performance, sovereign debt yields
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