February 28, 2019

U.S. real GDP expanded 2.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate last quarter, down from 3.4% in 3Q and 4.2% in the second quarter of 2018. Personal consumption and nonresidential investment accounted for all of the rise. Residential construction recorded a fourth straight contraction. Net exports exerted a smaller drag of 0.2 percentage points. Inventories and government spending gave minimal lifts. Real GDP was 3.1% higher than a year earlier last quarter and posted the largest calendar year advance (2.9%) in 2018 since 2015. The personal consumption price deflator, expressed at a seasonally adjusted annual rate from the previous quarter, has progressively decelerated from 2.7% in the final quarter of 2017 to 2.5% in 1Q18, 2.0% in 2Q18, 1.6% in 3Q18, and 1.5% last quarter. Compared to the final quarter of 2017, the total PCE deflator and the Core PCE price index were 1.9% higher.

Copyright 2019, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.



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