U.S. Economy Strengthened Relative to Euroland’s in January
February 5, 2018
The ISM’s U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index jumped 3.9 points to a 31-month high of 59.9 in January. Orders and jobs growth accelerated sharply. Production and inflation also picked up. The manufacturing PMI was also robust last month.
The IHS estimate of Euroland’s services PMI rose 1.4 points to 58.0, which was at a 139-month high. The French and Irish indices were each at 59.2. These were followed by readings of 57.7 in Italy, 57.3 in Germany, and 56.9 in Spain. Even so, Euroland’s month-to-month services PMI advance of 1.4 points in January was 2.5 points smaller than the 3.9-point increase in the aforementioned U.S. PMI. The manufacturing spread had meanwhile become less disadvantageous in January, halving to -2.0 from -4.0. The sum of the services and manufacturing spreads therefore collapsed from -4.6 in December to -0.1 in January.
| PMIs | U.S. | Ezone | U.S. | Ezone | Sum of | ||
| NonMfg | Services | Spread | Mf’g | Mf’g | Spread | Spreads | |
| Jan 2012 | 56.8 | 50.4 | +6.4 | 54.1 | 48.8 | +5.3 | +10.9 |
| Feb | 56.1 | 48.8 | +7.3 | 51.9 | 49.0 | +2.9 | +10.2 |
| March | 55.0 | 49.2 | +5.8 | 53.3 | 47.7 | +5.6 | +11.4 |
| April | 53.7 | 46.9 | +6.8 | 54.1 | 45.9 | +8.2 | +15.0 |
| May | 54.1 | 46.7 | +7.4 | 52.5 | 45.1 | +7.4 | +14.8 |
| June | 52.7 | 47.1 | +5.6 | 50.2 | 45.1 | +5.1 | +10.7 |
| July | 52.9 | 47.9 | +5.0 | 50.5 | 44.0 | +6.5 | +11.5 |
| August | 54.3 | 47.2 | +7.1 | 50.7 | 45.1 | +5.6 | +12.7 |
| Sept | 55.2 | 46.1 | +9.1 | 51.6 | 46.1 | +5.5 | +14.6 |
| October | 54.8 | 46.0 | +8.8 | 51.7 | 45.4 | +6.3 | +15.1 |
| November | 54.8 | 46.7 | +8.1 | 49.9 | 46.2 | +3.7 | +11.8 |
| December | 55.7 | 47.8 | +7.9 | 50.2 | 46.1 | +4.1 | +12.0 |
| Jan 2013 | 55.2 | 48.6 | +6.6 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +11.8 |
| February | 54.8 | 47.9 | +8.1 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +13.3 |
| March | 54.5 | 46.4 | +8.1 | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | +12.8 |
| April | 53.8 | 47.0 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | +10.1 |
| May | 54.0 | 47.2 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | +8.5 |
| June | 53.4 | 48.3 | +5.1 | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | +8.8 |
| July | 55.9 | 49.8 | +6.1 | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | +10.7 |
| August | 57.9 | 50.7 | +7.2 | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | +12.1 |
| Sept | 54.5 | 52.2 | +2.3 | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | +7.2 |
| October | 55.1 | 51.6 | +3.5 | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | +8.8 |
| November | 54.1 | 51.2 | +2.9 | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | +8.3 |
| December | 53.0 | 51.0 | +2.0 | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | +5.8 |
| Jan 2014 | 54.0 | 51.6 | +2.4 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | -0.3 |
| February | 52.5 | 52.6 | -0.1 | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| March | 53.7 | 52.1 | +1.6 | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | +3.0 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.1 | +2.2 | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | +4.1 |
| May | 56.1 | 53.2 | +2.9 | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | +6.3 |
| June | 56.3 | 52.8 | +3.5 | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | +7.4 |
| July | 57.9 | 54.2 | +3.7 | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | +8.3 |
| August | 58.6 | 53.1 | +5.5 | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | +12.9 |
| Sept | 58.1 | 52.4 | +5.7 | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | +11.5 |
| October | 56.9 | 52.1 | +4.8 | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | +12.1 |
| November | 58.8 | 51.1 | +7.7 | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | +15.2 |
| December | 56.5 | 51.6 | +4.9 | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | +9.4 |
| Jan 2015 | 56.7 | 52.7 | +4.0 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | +6.5 |
| February | 57.1 | 53.7 | +4.4 | 52.3 | 51.0 | +1.3 | +5.7 |
| March | 56.9 | 54.2 | +2.7 | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | +2.8 |
| April | 57.5 | 54.1 | +3.4 | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | +3.0 |
| May | 55.9 | 53.8 | +2.1 | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | +3.0 |
| June | 56.2 | 54.4 | +1.8 | 53.1 | 53.1 | 0.0 | +1.8 |
| July | 59.6 | 54.0 | +5.6 | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | +5.1 |
| August
Sept October |
58.3
56.7 58.3 |
54.4
53.7 54.1 |
+3.9
+3.0 +4.2 |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
+2.6
+1.0 +1.3 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April May June July August Sept October November December Jan 2017 February March April May June July August Sept October November December Jan 2018
|
56.6
55.8 53.5 54.3 54.9 55.7 53.6 56.1 54.9 51.7 56.6 54.6 56.2 56.6 56.5 57.4 55.6 57.3 57.1 57.2 54.3 55.2 59.4 59.8 57.3 56.0 59.9 |
54.2
54.2 53.6 53.3 53.1 53.1 53.3 52.8 52.9 52.8 52.2 52.8 53.9 54.4 53.7 55.5 56.0 56.4 56.3 55.4 54.9 54.7 55.8 55.0 56.2 56.6 58.0
|
+1.7
+1.6 -0.1 +1.0 +1.8 +2.6 +0.3 +3.3 +2.0 -1.1 +4.4 +1.8 +2.3 +2.2 +2.8 +1.9 -0.4 +0.9 +0.8 +1.8 -0.6 +0.5 +3.6 +4.8 +1.1 -0.6 +1.9 |
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.7 51.7 50.7 51.0 52.8 52.8 49.4 51.7 52.0 53.5 54.5 56.0 57.6 56.6 55.3 55.5 56.7 56.5 59.3 60.2 58.5 58.2 59.3 59.1 |
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 53.5 53.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 57.4 58.1 58.5 60.1 63.3 61.1 |
-4.4
-5.2 -4.1 -1.5 +0.1 -1.0 -0.5 +0.0 +0.8 -2.3 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.4 +0.8 +2.2 +0.4 -1.4 -1.5 -0.7 -0.1 +1.9 +2.1 0.0 -1.9 -4.0 -2.0 |
-2.7
-3.6 -4.2 -1.4 +1.5 +1.6 -0.9 +3.7 +3.4 -3.7 +4.0 +0.5 +3.1 +1.8 +3.6 +4.1 +0.0 -0.5 -0.7 +1.1 -0.7 +2.4 +5.7 +4.8 -0.8 -4.6 -0.1 |
Copyright 2017, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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