Central Bank Watch
First Bank of Canada Policy Interest Rate Hike Since September 2010
July 12, 2017
In the initial emergence from the Great Recession, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates three times while the Fed stood pat, lifting the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points each in June, July and September 2010. Like many central banks that jumped the gun, part of that tightening proved premature and had to […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Markets Just Can’t Get Beyond Trump Administration Uncertainty and Contradictions
July 12, 2017
As the tenth anniversary of the start of the financial crisis nears to less than two months, the conventional wisdom is that a normalization of monetary policies will be kicking into a faster gear. The Fed leads in this process but is not the only monetary authority involved. In fact, the Bank of Japan has […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Oil Down, Dollar Up on a Lean Day for Data
July 11, 2017
West Texas Intermediate crude oil sank 0.9% to $44.01 per barrel, snuffing out yesterday’s nascent recovery. Comex gold fell 0.3% to $1,209.20. The dollar also advanced against other paper currencies, rising 0.8% versus the kiwi, 0.7% relative to the Australian dollar, 0.3% vis-a-vis the Mexican peso, Swiss franc and yen, and 0.2% against the loonie. […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Dollar Possibly on Course for a Perfect Storm of Uncertain Timing
July 10, 2017
A term often mentioned today in assessments of the Hamburg Summit has been the G19. With the United States delegation marching to its own drumbeat, the other nineteen governments agreed to coordinate on a host of policies for their mutual benefit and to proceed in effect as a Group of Nineteen. If the U.S. renounces […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Israel
July 10, 2017
After having cut Israel’s policy interest rate by 75 basis points per year in 2011-14, monetary officials sanctioned one final 10-basis point reduction in February 2015 to the present level of 0.10%. The latest policy review concluded as it has been doing for some time that an accommodative stance needs to be maintained for “as […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Serbia
July 10, 2017
Starting in April of 2013, the Executive Board of the NSB cut Serbia’s policy interest rate by a total of 825 basis points from 12.25% to 4.0%. The reductions included 350 basis points in 2015 and, most recently, a pair a 25-bp cuts in February and July of 2016. A statement released today after the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Markets Move on From G20 Summit With Firmer Dollar, Stocks, and Bonds
July 10, 2017
Nothing truly newsworthy came out of the G20 Summit in Hamburg. The G19 is going forward without the United States on implementing the Paris Accord on combating man-made climate change. A potential trade war over steel wasn’t averted, nor did a coordinated plan emerge to address the situations in Syria, North Korea and other hot […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
July 8, 2017
Holiday: French Bastille Day on Friday, July 14. Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in Canada, Israel, Serbia, Peru, Malaysia, and South Korea. Chair Janet Yellen delivers her semi-annual testimony to the House Banking Committee on Wednesday and will reprise such before the Senate Financial Services Committee on Thursday; unless renominated by President Trump, this will […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.S. Jobs Day, G-20 Summit Begins, and BOJ Policy Becomes More Differentiated
July 7, 2017
Investors await the monthly U.S. Labor Dept jobs data due at 12:30 GMT. In the meantime, industrial production figures were released for Germany, France, Great Britain, Spain, Denmark, and the Czech Republic. Other data releases of interest have been Japanese and Chinese reserves, Japan’s index of leading economic indicators, the French current account, and British […] More
Deeper Analysis
The U.S. Enjoyed a Bigger Growth Advantage in June than May
July 6, 2017
It was already reported earlier this week by the Institute of Supply Management that the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index leaped 2.9 points to a 32-month high of 57.8 in June. This eclipsed a 0.4-point rise in Euroland’s comparable PMI to 57.4. Now comes word that the non-manufacturing U.S. PMI increased 0.5 points to a […] More
