Eurozone PMIs Improved Last Month Relative to U.S. Scores

January 6, 2016

The U.S.-minus-eurozone services purchasing managers differential fell 0.6 points to +1.1 in December.  Earlier this week, investors learned of an 0.8-point widening of the negative manufacturing PMI spread.  Adding those two spreads results in a combined negative spread of 3.9 points, 1.4 points more advantageous to Euroland than in November and representing a large 10.5-point swing in the five months since July.

The U.S. non-manufacturing PMI fell 0.6 points to a 20-month low of 55.3.  The supplier deliveries sub-index swung from 53.0 to 48.5.

Euroland’s services purchasing managers index held at November’s 3-month high of 54.2.  December was the first month since November 2014 in which the eurozone manufacturing PMI exceeded its services counterpart.  Among reporting members of the common currency area, the German and Italian service PMIs were at 17- and 69-month highs, while the French index fell below the 50 no change threshold to an 11-month low of 49.8.  Spain’s index declined to a 3-month low, while Ireland’s score of 61.8 was lower than November’s 63.8 reading but above October’s 60.1.

PMIs U.S. Ezone U.S. Ezone Sum of
Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads
Jan 2012 56.8 50.4 +6.4 54.1 48.8 +5.3 +10.9
Feb 56.1 48.8 +7.3 51.9 49.0 +2.9 +10.2
March 55.0 49.2 +5.8 53.3 47.7 +5.6 +11.4
April 53.7 46.9 +6.8 54.1 45.9 +8.2 +15.0
May 54.1 46.7 +7.4 52.5 45.1 +7.4 +14.8
June 52.7 47.1 +5.6 50.2 45.1 +5.1 +10.7
July 52.9 47.9 +5.0 50.5 44.0 +6.5 +11.5
August 54.3 47.2 +7.1 50.7 45.1 +5.6 +12.7
Sept 55.2 46.1 +9.1 51.6 46.1 +5.5 +14.6
October 54.8 46.0 +8.8 51.7 45.4 +6.3 +15.1
November 54.8 46.7 +8.1 49.9 46.2 +3.7 +11.8
December 55.7 47.8 +7.9 50.2 46.1 +4.1 +12.0
Jan 2013 55.2 48.6 +6.6 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +11.8
February 54.8 47.9 +8.1 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +13.3
March 54.5 46.4 +8.1 51.5 46.8 +4.7 +12.8
April 53.8 47.0 +6.8 50.0 46.7 +3.3 +10.1
May 54.0 47.2 +6.8 50.0 48.3 +1.7 +8.5
June 53.4 48.3 +5.1 52.5 48.8 +3.7 +8.8
July 55.9 49.8 +6.1 54.9 50.3 +4.6 +10.7
August 57.9 50.7 +7.2 56.3 51.4 +4.9 +12.1
Sept 54.5 52.2 +2.3 56.0 51.1 +4.9 +7.2
October 55.1 51.6 +3.5 56.6 51.3 +5.3 +8.8
November 54.1 51.2 +2.9 57.0 51.6 +5.4 +8.3
December 53.0 51.0 +2.0 56.5 52.7 +3.8 +5.8
Jan 2014 54.0 51.6 +2.4 51.3 54.0 -2.7 -0.3
February 52.5 52.6 -0.1 54.3 53.2 +1.1 +1.0
March 53.7 52.1 +1.6 54.4 53.0 +1.4 +3.0
April 55.3 53.1 +2.2 55.3 53.4 +1.9 +4.1
May 56.1 53.2 +2.9 55.6 52.2 +3.4 +6.3
June 56.3 52.8 +3.5 55.7 51.8 +3.9 +7.4
July 57.9 54.2 +3.7 56.4 51.8 +4.6 +8.3
August 58.6 53.1 +5.5 58.1 50.7 +7.4 +12.9
Sept 58.1 52.4 +5.7 56.1 50.3 +5.8 +11.5
October 56.9 52.1 +4.8 57.9 50.6 +7.3 +12.1
November 58.8 51.1 +7.7 57.6 50.1 +7.5 +15.2
December 56.5 51.6 +4.9 55.1 50.6 +4.5 +9.4
Jan 2015 56.7 52.7 +4.0 53.5 51.0 +2.5 +6.5
February 56.9 53.7 +3.2 52.9 51.0 +1.9 +5.1
March 56.5 54.2 +2.3 51.5 52.2 -0.7 +1.6
April 57.8 54.1 +3.7 51.5 52.0 -0.5 +3.2
May 55.7 53.8 +1.9 52.8 52.2 +0.6 +2.5
June 56.0 54.4 +1.6 53.5 52.5 +1.0 +2.6
July 60.3 54.0 +6.3 52.7 52.4 +0.3 +6.6
AugustSept

October

 59.056.9

59.1

 54.453.7

54.1

 +4.6+3.2

+5.0

 51.150.2

50.1

 52.352.0

52.3

 -1.2-1.8

-2.2

 +3.4+1.4

+2.8
November

December

 55.9

55.3

 54.2

54.2

 +1.7

+1.1

 48.6

48.2

 52.8

53.2

 -4.2

-5.0

 -2.5

-3.9

Copyright 2016, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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